Technical Analysis Summary

USD Futures Exposure

• Futures traders flipped to net-short USD exposure for the first time since February.
• Asset managers and large speculators remain net-long the USD index.

EUR/USD Futures Positioning

• Gross longs rose and gross shorts fell on EUR/USD futures, among both large speculators and asset managers.
• A bearish reversal (dark cloud cover) on EUR/USD could lead to a deeper pullback.

Commodity FX Futures

• Large speculators reduced their gross-short exposure to CAD futures by 30% (-54.6k contracts).
• Long bets picked up for NZD/USD futures for a second week, and shorts have been trimmed 3 of the past 4 weeks.
• Net-short exposure to AUD/USD fell for a second consecutive week among large speculators and fourth week among asset managers.

Metals Futures

• Despite an increase in net-long exposure for gold, silver and copper futures up to Tuesday, the three metals would go to close the week lower by Friday.
• Mean reversion for the US dollar is in place, and month-end-flows likely favoured a higher US dollar.

Wall Street Indices

• Asset managers remain confident on Wall Street indices, with net-long exposure firmly bullish for the S&P 500 futures market.
• It becomes difficult to construct an overly bearish case for Wall Street indices while investors remain confident on a soft landing and multiple Fed cuts.