Market Summary - October 26, 2026
Market Overview
The US markets are experiencing a positive corrective move, driven by news of resumed peace negotiations between Iran and the US, alongside the initial public offering (IPO) filing by Anthropic. The technology index (US100) is leading the gains with futures up approximately 0.7%, while small-cap and industrial indices are also rising by 0.3% to 0.5%.
Anthropic IPO Filing
On Monday, Anthropic filed for an IPO, aiming to list on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "ANT". The IPO could potentially raise over $100 billion, valuing the company between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. Anthropic reported a revenue of $16.3 billion for the first half of the year, a significant increase from $1.2 billion the previous year. However, the company also reported a net loss of $80.7 billion, largely due to a non-cash accounting charge related to financial instruments.
AI Infrastructure Funding
Investment in AI infrastructure remains a focal point, with Meta planning to raise up to $95 billion through the sale of common and preferred shares. This move indicates a growing reliance on external capital even among profitable companies. Meta's capital expenditures are projected to reach around $140 billion, surpassing its operating cash flow. Concerns in the credit market are evident, as the company's five-year CDS spread has doubled since August.
Upcoming Earnings Reports
This week, major earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are anticipated, which will assess the demand for cloud services and the monetization of AI technologies. Currently, about 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings have surpassed expectations, although only 54% have exceeded revenue forecasts.
Market Reactions to Political Events
A significant selloff has impacted US-listed companies associated with Brazil following Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's election victory over Flavio Bolsonaro. Notable losses include XP down 46%, Nu Holdings down 23%, and StoneCo down 35%. This political shift has also affected mining and consumer sectors.
Oil Market Update
In the oil market, prices are declining, with Brent crude hovering around $110. Diplomatic discussions involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran aim to ease tensions. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs warns that deferred refinery maintenance could restrict supply and exports of refined products into 2027.
Company News Highlights
- Meta (META.US): Shares recover early losses as the financing plan includes significant capital raises.
- Tesla (TSLA.US): Shares rise approximately 6% following positive analyst notes.
- CoreWeave (CRWV.US): Shares gain around 5% after Anthropic's IPO news.
- Borr Drilling (BORR.US): Shares drop about 8% after a rig incident off Gabon.
- Surgery Partners (SGRY.US): Shares surge over 45% amid acquisition talks.
- MercadoLibre (MELI.US): Shares fall more than 10% due to the Brazilian market selloff.
Technical Analysis - US100
The US100 index is currently in a short-term correction phase, testing the EMA100 while remaining below the EMA25 and EMA50. The RSI indicates a gradual slowdown in downward pressure, but the MACD remains negative. Key support is around the 29,500 zone, while reclaiming 30,000 could lead to a move towards the 30,500 resistance area.
Macroeconomic Data to Watch
This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be a key focus. Additionally, September durable goods orders are expected to remain stable, driven by AI-related investments and large aircraft orders, with consumer confidence survey results also on the horizon.