Gold and Silver Price Forecast: China Buying Supports Metals Amid Iran-Israel Conflict
Published: June 12, 2026
Author: Arslan Ali
Key Points
- The US-Iran ceasefire has held for over ten weeks amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions, allowing for a gradual resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gold has rebounded to $4,188, successfully defending Fibonacci 0.236 support with bullish continuation candles.
- Silver tested $66.90 long-term support after rejecting the moving average near $72.70, indicating bearish distribution.
- China's People’s Bank has sustained gold purchases for over 17 consecutive months, providing solid long-term support for gold prices.
Market Analysis
As of June 12, 2026, the fundamentals for gold remain strong, supported by steady central bank buying and safe-haven demand. The official sector has added 244 tonnes to its net purchases in the first quarter, with Poland and China being active participants. This trend is likely driven by high geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and high U.S. inflation rates.
Despite a firmer Federal Reserve policy stance potentially posing headwinds for gold, analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and policy divergence will continue to support gold prices. The demand for silver, on the other hand, is influenced by both industrial and precious metal factors, with the market expected to face another year of deficits due to increasing demand for solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles.
Technical Analysis
Gold Price Action
Gold is currently rebounding to $4,188, with bullish continuation candles defending support at $4,104 along the Fibonacci 0.236 level. The moving average at $4,194 is acting as a resistance point. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 48, indicating neutral momentum. A long trade idea suggests buying at $4,188 with a stop at $4,104 and a target of $4,194.
Silver Price Action
Silver is testing the $66.90 level, retesting strong support at $62.15. The market has seen mixed price action, pulling back from the moving average at $68.53. The RSI for silver is at 45, showing diminishing momentum. A long trade idea suggests buying at $66.90 with a stop at $65.50 and a target of $68.53.