Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Can BTC Hold $77K as Fed, Iran Risks and PCE Data Collide?

Author: Yashu Gola

Published: May 25, 2026

Key Points

• Bitcoin (BTC) ended last week down 0.5% amidst volatility influenced by Nvidia earnings, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and US-Iran tensions.
• BTC rebounded to approximately $77,680 following comments from Donald Trump suggesting a quick resolution to the Iran conflict, alleviating inflation concerns.
• Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming US PCE inflation report and GDP data, as higher inflation could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, impacting crypto assets negatively.

Market Analysis

In the previous analysis, volatility around Nvidia's earnings was anticipated. Following an 86% year-on-year revenue increase reported by Nvidia, Bitcoin initially surged by 2.2%, only to retract after Kevin Warsh was appointed as the new Federal Reserve chair. This reflects a significant bias conflict among Bitcoin traders, as they navigate mixed signals from the market.

US-Iran Conflict Developments

Bitcoin opened the week positively, rising about 0.5% to around $77,680, as traders reacted to indications of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. President Trump stated that the war with Iran could end "very quickly," and Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted some progress in negotiations for a potential peace deal. However, key issues remain unresolved, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy passage.

Economic Indicators

Traders are awaiting the PCE inflation report, which is expected to show an increase to 3.8% year-on-year, while core PCE is projected to remain around 3.3%–3.4%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model anticipates a strong 4.3% annualized growth for Q2, contrasting with the New York Fed's more conservative estimate of 2.6%. A higher-than-expected PCE could reinforce the Fed's stance on maintaining elevated interest rates, potentially exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Market Sentiment and Bitcoin Inflows

Binance has reported nearly ten consecutive days of net Bitcoin inflows, with weekly averages rising significantly. This trend typically signals bearish sentiment, as increased inflows to exchanges often indicate intentions to sell. Additionally, Bitcoin's apparent demand has dropped to its lowest level since late 2025, suggesting that the current market may not sustain a rebound without renewed buying interest.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin's daily chart indicates a bear flag pattern, with the price struggling near key moving averages. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $77,300–$78,000 Fibonacci zone, it may face further declines towards the $72,000–$74,000 support area, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels.

Conclusion

The outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain as traders navigate geopolitical tensions, economic data releases, and market sentiment. The interplay between these factors will be crucial in determining Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming days.