Market Summary - July 9, 2026

Key Takeaways:

• U.S. equity futures are showing slight gains despite rising oil prices.
• The conflict between the United States and Iran is escalating.
• China's June CPI inflation was slightly below market expectations.

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are trending upwards, with the US100 up by 0.6% and the US500 gaining 0.3%. In contrast, Asian equities have given up most of their earlier gains, now only up by 0.1%, primarily due to a slowdown in semiconductor stock rallies. European index futures indicate a stronger opening.

Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions

Brent crude oil prices have risen over 1% to approximately USD 79 per barrel, marking a third consecutive daily increase following renewed U.S. military actions against Iran. The situation has led to a significant slowdown in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy shipping route, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. The U.S. has also revoked a waiver that allowed Iran to sell oil globally in response to recent attacks on tankers.

Bond Markets and Interest Rates

Government bonds in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are declining as markets anticipate further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve due to rising inflation risks. The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury is nearing its highest level of the year, although Treasuries remained stable during the Asian trading session.

Commodity Prices

Gold prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive session, now around USD 4,050 per ounce, while silver has dipped nearly 1% to below USD 58 per ounce. The decline in these precious metals is attributed to increasing expectations of higher interest rates, which diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets.

China's Economic Data

China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose by 1.0% year-over-year, slightly below the 1.1% consensus and down from 1.2% in May. The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased to 4.1% year-over-year, aligning with expectations and up from 3.9% the previous month. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by more than 1% in response to these figures.

Corporate Developments

In the corporate sector, nearly 400 S&P 500 companies closed lower yesterday, although the benchmark managed to recover some losses after Donald Trump indicated he does not foresee a resumption of war. The semiconductor sector saw gains following reports that China may permit its leading AI companies to purchase a limited number of Nvidia H200 processors. Additionally, Apple is expanding its partnership with Broadcom, with a deal valued at over USD 30 billion for U.S.-made components. Meta is also investing approximately USD 10 billion in its first data center in Canada to enhance its AI infrastructure.

Geopolitical Developments

Reports from Iranian state television indicated multiple explosions near Bandar Abbas, with claims of projectiles hitting Sirik and Jask Ports, and a bridge being destroyed in northeastern Iran. Tehran has warned of potential retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East, while U.S. officials have suggested that future strikes on Iran could be more intense.

Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 futures have rebounded from the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), which provided support during the previous session. The key support level remains around 7,460 points, while resistance is identified at recent local highs near 7,650 points.