Aussie Holds Bullish Path
By Cedric Thompson | Published: Jun 06, 2026
Key Points
- The construct for AUD/USD is bullish, though short-term choppiness is expected.
- Australia's yield premium over the US supports AUD/USD, despite US dollar strength from geopolitical risks.
- Current support level is at 0.71015, maintaining this level could lead to a move towards 0.72715.
Market Overview
The AUD/USD pair is currently up by 0.15%, with the Australian dollar also showing slight gains against the Japanese yen (0.06%) but declining against the euro and British pound. This indicates that the USD is experiencing some weakness rather than a broad-based strength of the AUD. The upcoming US payroll data may provide further direction for the AUD.
Yield Spread Analysis
Australia's 10-year yield is approximately 4.90%, compared to the US's 4.48%, which gives the AUD a long-term premium. However, the narrowing of this spread could impact the strength of the AUD, prompting traders to consider other pairs for carry trades.
AUD/JPY Resilience
The AUD/JPY pair is attempting to rise above its 21-EMA while remaining above the 50-SMA, with both acting as support. Despite being above the 500-SMA, the positive momentum is declining, as indicated by the RSI crossing below 50. The ability of the 50-SMA and Supertrend line to hold will be crucial for the AUD/JPY's upward movement.
Mixed Momentum Signals for AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair is currently trapped between the 21-EMA and 50-SMA, with mixed momentum signals. A recent green brick has been posted, but the RSI is showing signs of weakness. A clear confirmation is needed before making any trading decisions.
The Verdict
Current Trend Direction: Bullish
Bias: Positive
Support Levels: 0.6833, 0.71015, 0.70720
Resistance Levels: 0.72715, 0.74070
The medium-term outlook remains bullish, but caution is advised due to the mixed signals in the Renko structure. Traders should be wary of day trading until a clearer trend emerges.