USDCAD Technical Outlook: Bulls Lose Grip as Dip Below MAs Tilt Bias to the Downside

Author: Greg Michalowski

Date: April 3, 2026

Current Market Overview

The USDCAD currency pair is currently trading below the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, specifically at 1.3679 and 1.36719, indicating a bearish short-term bias. The immediate support level to watch is at 1.36239, while resistance is noted at 1.3724.

Recent Price Action

Earlier in the week, the USDCAD experienced a breakout driven by a broad strength in the US dollar, despite rising oil prices that typically bolster the Canadian dollar (Loonie). This suggests a strong demand for the USD. However, the upward momentum was halted at the 61.8% retracement level of the 2026 range, specifically at 1.3757. Following this, the price fell back through a significant swing zone between 1.3714 and 1.3724 and is now struggling to maintain levels above the moving averages.

Key Technical Levels

Level / Zone	Significance	Status
1.3714 – 1.3724	Upper Swing Area / Resistance	Active Ceiling
1.37045	50% Midpoint	Resistance
1.3671 – 1.3679	100 & 200-Hour MAs	Current Pivot Zone
1.36517	38.2% Retracement	Immediate Support
1.3623 – 1.3630	Lower Consolidation Swing Area	Key Support Target

Market Scenarios

The Bearish Case

If the price remains below 1.3679, the bearish bias will persist. Sellers will aim to break below the 1.3651 mark (38.2% retracement) to target the major support zone between 1.3623 and 1.3630.

The Bullish Case

A move back above the 200-hour MA at 1.3679 would neutralize the current selling pressure, potentially shifting the bias back to the buyers. This could lead to targets at the 1.3704 midpoint and the 1.3724 swing area.

Conclusion

Currently, sellers are in control as long as the price remains below the moving averages. A decisive break below 1.3651 is necessary for the bears to initiate the next downward movement.