Morning Wrap: Iran Says US Violated Ceasefire (09.04.2026)
Market Overview
Brent crude oil prices are rebounding by 1.2%, reaching approximately $97 per barrel. This increase is attributed to Iran's growing distrust towards the U.S. and ongoing Israeli military actions in the region. U.S. index futures are showing little movement, remaining flat amidst these developments.
Iran's Accusations Against the U.S.
The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament has accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire agreement, which has intensified mutual distrust. Iran has pointed to recent Israeli airstrikes and drone incidents, particularly in Lebanon, where the Lebanese government has vowed to take all necessary measures to counter Israeli attacks. In response, Washington has dismissed these allegations, with Senator JD Vance stating that the situation in Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement.
U.S. Military Stance
Former President Trump has reiterated that the U.S. military remains fully mobilized in the region until a genuine agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz is opened. He has issued threats to Iran should they withdraw from negotiations.
Market Sentiment in Asia
Market sentiment in Asia is characterized by skepticism and caution. After an initial wave of optimism, markets have stalled due to concerns about the sustainability of the U.S.-Iran truce. Key worries include the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and disputes regarding Lebanon's inclusion in the ceasefire terms. Major losses were observed in South Korea's KOSPI (-1.8%) and Japan's market (-0.7%), with China (HSCEI: -0.3%) and India (Nifty 50: -0.6%) also experiencing declines.
New Zealand Dollar Performance
Comments from RBNZ Governor Anna Breman indicate that previous interest rate cuts are still providing economic support, although the risk of higher inflation has increased. This hawkish stance has led to gains in the New Zealand dollar, making it the most volatile G10 currency during the session (NZDUSD: +0.25%, NZDJPY: +0.4%, AUDNZD: -0.25%).
Forex Market Overview
Aside from the New Zealand dollar, volatility in the foreign exchange market remains subdued. The Dollar Index (USDIDX) is trading flat, and the EUR/USD pair is unchanged at 1.166. The Japanese Yen is experiencing losses following disappointing consumer sentiment data (USDJPY: +0.2%).
Precious Metals and Cryptocurrencies
Gold prices have remained stagnant for the second consecutive session at $4,720 per ounce, amid uncertainty surrounding the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and hawkish Federal Reserve minutes that have been overshadowed by other events. Silver is also trading flat at $73 per ounce. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has decreased by 0.7% to $71,180, while Ethereum has dropped by 1.2% to $2,191, although overall volatility remains limited.