Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Crashes to Seven-Month Lows

Author: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist

Date: March 15, 2026

Summary

The Euro has experienced a significant decline, dropping more than 1.7% in a single week, marking its largest weekly loss since April 2024. This downturn has pushed the EUR/USD pair to its lowest levels in seven months, with a notable 5% drop from its yearly high. The current focus is on a critical support zone around 1.1355, which could determine the future trend of the currency pair.

Technical Analysis

The recent price action indicates a decisive shift in momentum for the Euro, as it has broken below the 52-week moving average. The next major support level is identified at 1.1355/94, which is significant due to its alignment with the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance, the April high-close, and the July swing low. A reaction at this support level is anticipated, and whether buyers will step in or the pair will continue to decline will be crucial for the broader market direction.

Resistance Levels

Initial resistance is seen at 1.1497, with further resistance at 1.1571/98. A breach and weekly close above these levels would suggest a potential reversal in the current downtrend. For the bulls to regain control, they would need to clear the 2025 high-week close at 1.1747/75.

Market Outlook

The upcoming Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate decisions are expected to influence market dynamics. While both central banks are anticipated to maintain their current policies, the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections will be closely monitored, especially in light of rising oil prices and inflation concerns. The market has adjusted its expectations for the timing of the next Fed rate cut, now implying a 45% probability for September, a shift from earlier predictions favoring a July move.

Conclusion

The Euro's recent decline poses risks for a larger correction within its multi-year uptrend. Traders should be cautious, as rallies may be limited to 1.1598 if the downward trend continues. A close below the pivotal support zone at 1.1355/94 could trigger further declines.