Market Quick Take - 18 March 2026

Market Drivers and Catalysts

• Equities: U.S. and European markets saw slight gains driven by travel and energy sectors, while Asian markets remained selective due to mixed sentiments regarding chip optimism and oil price concerns.
• Volatility: Anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions, Jerome Powell's tone, and inflation risks contributed to elevated volatility levels.
• Digital Assets: Cryptocurrencies remained rangebound as investors awaited guidance from the Fed, with notable inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
• Fixed Income: Global bond markets rallied amid stable risk sentiment and easing oil prices.
• Currencies: The U.S. dollar weakened, particularly against the Japanese yen, while the Norwegian krone strengthened significantly.
• Commodities: Oil prices eased, but refined products indicated tight supply conditions; gold prices awaited direction from the upcoming FOMC rate guidance.

Macro Events

Risk sentiment improved following a decline in oil prices, aided by Iraq's agreement with Turkey to resume oil exports. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a focus on the implications of rising oil prices on monetary policy. U.S. pending home sales increased by 1.8% in February, although year-over-year sales saw a slight decline.

Macro Calendar Highlights

• 1000 – Eurozone Feb CPI (final)
• 1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
• 1230 – US Feb PPI
• 1345 – Canada Rate Decision
• 1400 – US Jan Factory Orders
• 1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report
• 1800 – Fed Rate Decision

Earnings This Week

Key earnings reports include:

• Today: Micron, Jabil, General Mills, Macy's
• Thursday: Accenture, Enel, FedEx, Darden Restaurants, Alibaba Group
• Friday: Carnival, XPeng

Equities Overview

USA

The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, and the Dow added 0.1%. Travel and alternative asset stocks led the rebound, with Delta and American Airlines raising revenue guidance.

Europe

The STOXX 600 increased by 0.7%, with utilities and energy stocks stabilizing the market. Brent crude prices remained above $100, keeping inflation concerns alive.

Asia

Asian markets were mixed, with South Korea's Kospi rising significantly due to easing oil prices and chip optimism, while Japan's Nikkei saw a slight decline.

Volatility Insights

Volatility is primarily influenced by macroeconomic events, with the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision being a key focus. The VIX index showed slight easing but remains elevated, indicating ongoing market uncertainty.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are trading within a narrow range as investors await the Fed's decision. Institutional demand remains strong, with notable inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Fixed Income

U.S. Treasuries rallied as oil prices eased, with the 2-year yield dropping below 3.66%. Japanese government bonds also saw gains amid stable risk sentiment.

Commodities Overview

Brent crude prices drifted lower, while WTI reached a weekly low. The market remains tight due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, despite some relief from increased pipeline flows.

Currencies Overview

The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, with the Norwegian krone experiencing significant gains as market expectations for a rate hike by Norges Bank increased.