US Dollar Price Forecast: U.S. Data in Focus

Published: August 04, 2026

Key Points

• Today's U.S. economic calendar features JOLTS job openings and ISM Services PMI.
• ADP employment and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls are significant catalysts for the Federal Reserve.
• Market participants are assessing the Fed's outlook after the recent decision to maintain interest rates.
• Eurozone retail sales and German factory orders will provide insights into ECB policy.
• UK Services PMI and labor market data are crucial following the Bank of England's recent decision.

Market Overview

The U.S. dollar is under scrutiny as traders await major economic announcements that could impact the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Following the Fed's decision to keep the benchmark rate steady at 3.50% – 3.75%, upcoming reports on job openings, factory orders, and the ISM Services PMI are critical for gauging the health of the U.S. labor market. Former Fed member Kevin Warsh emphasized that the Fed's decisions will remain data-dependent, with unemployment figures potentially influencing policy adjustments.

Eurozone and UK Economic Indicators

The euro is supported by the European Central Bank's recent decision to maintain the deposit rate at 2.25%. Traders are looking for signs of stabilization in domestic demand through eurozone retail sales and German factory orders. Meanwhile, the UK economy's performance will be assessed through the upcoming Services PMI and labor market data, following the Bank of England's decision to keep rates at 3.75%.

Technical Analysis

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The DXY is currently trading at 100.05, having found support from a long-term ascending trendline. A sustained break above 100.45 could signal a bullish trend, targeting levels of 101.61 and 102.66. However, momentum indicators suggest that the bullish trend has not yet been confirmed, with the RSI remaining below the neutral level.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating at 1.3428, having rallied from the 1.3273 trendline support. The immediate challenge lies at 1.3495, where a break could confirm a bullish outlook targeting 1.3559. Conversely, failure to hold this level may lead to declines towards 1.3399 and 1.3334.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is trading around 1.1505, maintaining above the breakout zone at 1.1482. The pair faces resistance at the descending trendline near 1.1549. A break above this level could indicate a larger bullish reversal, while a breach of 1.1482 would suggest a potential decline to 1.1435.

Conclusion

As the U.S. dollar navigates through critical economic data releases, traders remain cautious yet optimistic about potential bullish trends. The outcomes of the upcoming reports will be pivotal in shaping market expectations and influencing the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.