Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Jumps 8% as Hormuz Risks Return
Author: Arslan Ali
Published: April 14, 2026
Key Points
- Blockade Shock: WTI crude oil surged nearly 8% following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, which has raised concerns about global oil supply.
- WTI Technical Trap: Despite the price jump, WTI remains below the 50-period EMA, and failure to reclaim the $100 mark could lead to a drop to $91.00.
- Brent Resistance: Brent crude is struggling below $99.30, with technical indicators suggesting weak bullish momentum.
Market Overview
On April 13, crude oil prices experienced a significant increase after US-Iran talks failed, causing traders to reassess the stability of oil supply. WTI crude oil prices rose above $104, reflecting a nearly 8% gain, while Brent crude also saw an uptick towards $102. This price movement indicates that traders are now incorporating a risk premium into energy prices due to geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Risks
The US's decision to implement a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports has heightened market anxiety, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for 20% of the world's seaborne oil. Any prolonged disruption in this area could lead to severe supply shortages. Currently, tanker traffic is low, insurance costs are rising, and logistical challenges are increasing, which could push oil prices to between $110 and $120 if disruptions continue.
Natural Gas Market Dynamics
In contrast to the volatility in the oil market, natural gas prices remain stagnant, hovering near multi-month lows. This stagnation is attributed to forecasts of mild weather in the US, which is expected to reduce heating demand, coupled with strong production levels exceeding 108 Bcf per day. Although LNG exports are robust, domestic supply is outpacing consumption, limiting upward price movement in the natural gas market.
Technical Analysis
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude oil is currently around $96.50, struggling to maintain momentum after failing to hold the $100 psychological level. The price is testing an ascending trendline around $95.50, and if it fails, a drop to $91.00 could be imminent. A recovery above $100 is necessary to restore bullish sentiment.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude is trading around $98.40, unable to break through the $99.30 resistance level. The presence of both the 50 and 200 EMAs indicates a loss of momentum, and the RSI at 45 suggests a lack of confidence in a bullish reversal. A drop below $96.00 could lead to further declines, while a rise above $103.80 would signal a potential shift in market sentiment.
Conclusion
The current energy market is characterized by significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks, particularly in the oil sector. In contrast, the natural gas market is facing downward pressure due to domestic supply outpacing demand. Traders are advised to remain vigilant and monitor geopolitical developments closely, as these factors will heavily influence market dynamics in the near term.