ASML Earnings: How to Think About the Setup Before the Numbers
Author: Koen Hoorelbeke, Investment and Options Strategist
Publication Date: April 10, 2026
Overview
ASML is set to report its earnings on April 15, 2026. The key focus for investors is not just the direction of the stock price but whether the actual price movement will exceed or fall short of the expectations priced into the options market. Currently, options are indicating an expected move of approximately 8%.
Market Context
ASML plays a crucial role in the semiconductor industry, and its earnings results can significantly impact market sentiment. The market reaction is often influenced by more than just the headline earnings numbers; guidance, order intake, and management commentary are critical in shaping investor outlook.
Options Pricing
To gauge market expectations, the article discusses the use of at-the-money (ATM) call and put options. The combined pricing of these options provides an estimate of the expected price movement:
- ATM Call Price: ≈ 43
- ATM Put Price: ≈ 44
- Expected Move: ≈ 87–97 points (~8%)
This suggests a potential trading range for ASML of approximately 1,130 on the downside to 1,320 on the upside, based on current trading levels around 1,220–1,230.
Mini-Options Context
The article notes that the examples provided utilize mini-options, where one contract represents 10 shares instead of the standard 100. This structure allows for lower capital requirements while maintaining the same risk profile.
Scenario Analysis
Before implementing any trading strategies, it is essential to consider various potential outcomes:
- A strong report with a positive outlook could drive the stock higher.
- A decent report with few surprises may lead to a smaller price movement.
- A weaker outlook could result in a downward reaction.
Trading Strategies
The article outlines several trading strategies based on different market views:
Bullish View: Call Spread (1240/1320)
This strategy involves buying a call option at 1240 and selling another at 1320, with an entry cost of approximately 28 points (EUR 280). The maximum loss is EUR 280, while the maximum profit is around EUR 520.
Neutral View: Iron Condor (1100/1140/1320/1360)
This strategy combines selling a put spread below the market and a call spread above it. The entry credit is approximately 13.5 points (EUR 135), with a maximum loss of around EUR 265.
Bearish View: Put Spread (1240/1140)
This strategy involves buying a put option at 1240 and selling another at 1140, with an entry cost of about 40 points (EUR 400). The maximum loss is EUR 400, while the maximum profit is EUR 600.
Post-Earnings Position Management
After earnings are released, managing the position becomes crucial. Key considerations include:
- Acting quickly if the stock moves favorably.
- Being cautious of potential reversals in stock price.
- Understanding that volatility typically decreases post-earnings.
- Having a clear exit strategy in place.
Conclusion
ASML's earnings report is not solely about predicting the direction of the stock. A more effective approach involves defining potential scenarios, understanding market expectations, and selecting a trading structure that aligns with one's risk tolerance and market view.
FAQs
Why use the ATM call + put to estimate the move? This method provides a quick estimate of the market-implied move around the earnings event.
How does IV crush affect these strategies? IV crush can negatively impact long options but benefits short options in credit strategies.
What is the maximum loss in EUR? Investors should assess their risk tolerance and ensure they can accept the potential loss.