Oil Price Forecast: Key Levels in Focus as Middle East Energy Disruptions Intensify

Author: Razan Hilal, CMT

Date: March 12, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the current state of oil prices, particularly Brent crude, which has recently retested the $100 mark due to escalating energy disruptions in the Middle East. These disruptions include shipping and tanker attacks, drone strikes on ports, and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, all of which have significant implications for global oil supply and prices.

Recent Disruptions

Key events affecting oil supply include:

• Shipping and tanker attacks near Iraq.
• Drone strikes on Oman’s ports.
• Continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

These incidents have pressured OPEC producers and led to operational halts, causing shipping routes to diverge and insurance premiums to rise, further straining global energy supply chains.

Inflation Risks

The article highlights that the ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to elevate inflation risks, as disruptions are not only affecting crude oil but also the transport of essential goods, which could lead to broader price increases if the conflict continues.

Technical Analysis

For oil traders, key technical levels are crucial for managing risk exposure:

• WTI Crude: $91 – $95
• Brent Crude: $100 – $105

A daily close above these levels could redirect prices towards the 2022 highs near $130 per barrel. The article notes that despite a previous pullback from $119 to $76, the rebound above previous resistance levels suggests a potential for a sustained bullish phase.

Price Scenarios

The article outlines two potential scenarios for crude oil prices:

Bullish Scenario

If WTI successfully defends the $75 level, it could lead to price targets of $91, $95, and potentially up to $130 - $150 based on Fibonacci extensions.

Bearish Scenario

A daily close below $75 could reassert bearish pressure, potentially driving prices down to the $66 level, which may lead to further consolidation between $70 and $50.

Conclusion

The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and technical levels in the oil market, as these factors will significantly influence future price movements and trading strategies.