Gold and Silver Price Forecast Summary

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have recently experienced a decline, reaching an intraday low of $3,305 before stabilizing around $3,314. This drop was influenced by a stronger-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, which indicated the addition of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the revised figure of 144,000 for May. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, reflecting a resilient labor market and reducing expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. Consequently, the U.S. Dollar strengthened, making gold, a non-yielding asset, less appealing to investors.

Key Influences on Gold Prices

• The market is adjusting its timeline for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, complicating gold's upward movement.
• Upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are anticipated to provide insights into the Fed's stance on inflation and interest rates.
• Trade policy risks have resurfaced, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that tariffs may revert to previous levels if no progress is made by August 1, adding uncertainty to global markets.

Geopolitical Risks

Despite the bearish pressure from strong macroeconomic data, rising geopolitical tensions globally are providing a safety net for gold prices. The demand for gold as a hedge against these risks remains strong, even as the fundamentals appear bearish in the short term.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is currently trading below a broken rising trendline near $3,322, indicating bearish pressure after a rejection from the $3,366 resistance zone. The price struggles to reclaim the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, which are acting as resistance levels around $3,331 and $3,336, respectively. Immediate support is at $3,296, and a break below this level could lead to further declines towards $3,274.

Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver has shown resilience, rebounding after testing the ascending trendline and 50-EMA near $36.50, which helps maintain its broader uptrend. However, a double-top structure appears to be forming after a rejection from $37.15. The price needs to reclaim $36.82 to invalidate the bearish setup, while a close below $36.39 could weaken the bullish structure.

Conclusion

Gold and silver prices remain range-bound as traders await the release of the Fed minutes. While bearish pressure persists, geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties continue to support both metals near critical levels. The market's response to upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical developments will be crucial in determining the next directional move for gold and silver.