Summary of USD/JPY, AUD/USD Forecast Article

Author: David Scutt, Market Analyst

Date: March 15, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar, particularly against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) and the Australian dollar (AUD/USD), in response to geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The US dollar appears to have reached near-term highs as traders react to news suggesting a coalition of nations may escort ships through this critical waterway.

Key Developments

Reports indicate that the Trump administration is considering plans to collaborate with multiple countries to enhance security in the Strait of Hormuz. This news has sparked a rebound in risk assets, leading to a pullback in the dollar. However, the article emphasizes that these developments are still speculative, with no concrete agreements in place to ensure the safety of vessels in the region.

Market Reactions

Despite the cautious optimism surrounding potential normalization of energy flows, the crude oil market remains skeptical, as indicated by Brent crude prices holding steady. Asian equities and US stock futures have shown positive movement, reflecting a shift in sentiment among traders who are hopeful that major supply disruptions can be avoided.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is currently in a strong uptrend, with both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trending upwards. Key levels to watch include the breakout zone at 159.45, which was previously established in January. A sustained move above this level could reinforce the bullish trend, while a failure to maintain this level may lead to a reevaluation of the uptrend.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair has shown resilience, bouncing back from levels below 0.7000. The article notes that the pair has maintained a bullish structure, supported by a series of higher lows since early February. The February 2023 high near 0.7160 is highlighted as a critical resistance level, while support levels include the February uptrend and the 50-day moving average.

Conclusion

In summary, the article outlines the current dynamics affecting the USD/JPY and AUD/USD currency pairs, driven by geopolitical tensions and market sentiment. While the dollar has shown signs of weakness, technical indicators suggest that the overall bullish trend may still be intact, contingent on upcoming market developments and trader reactions.