Cardano Price Forecast: ADA Could Rally by 180% — Is It Worth the Risk?

Author: Alejandro Arrieche

Published: July 24, 2026

Key Points

• Recent hacking incident drained 515 million NIGHT tokens from a BNB-Cardano Bridge.
• Cardano's on-chain metrics indicate a heavily overvalued ADA token.
• Weekly patterns suggest ADA could recover to $0.47, but long-term potential is limited.

Current State of Cardano

Cardano (ADA) has experienced a significant decline, shedding 50% of its value this year due to a bear market that has hindered its ecosystem growth and interest in its architecture. A recent hacking incident, where hackers drained 515 million NIGHT tokens valued at approximately $10 million, further damaged Cardano's credibility. This incident underscores the vulnerabilities in the crypto space, particularly with third-party protocols connecting different blockchains.

On-Chain Metrics and Valuation

Cardano's on-chain metrics have been described as "heavily depressed," indicating that the ADA token may be overvalued. In the previous month, decentralized exchanges on the Cardano blockchain processed only $86 million in trading volumes, with decentralized applications generating less than $1.2 million in fees. The total value locked (TVL) in Cardano currently stands at $67 million, a stark contrast to Ethereum's $41 billion and Solana's $4.9 billion. Additionally, Cardano's daily active users were reported at 550,000 in June, while Solana had nearly 58 million active addresses during the same period.

Valuation Discrepancies

Despite its depressed metrics, Cardano is valued at $6 billion, which is 500 times its projected annual application fees based on an optimistic forecast of $12 million per year. In comparison, Solana's valuation metric is at a more reasonable 180 times its projected annual app fees, highlighting a significant disconnect between Cardano's ecosystem size and its valuation. This discrepancy raises concerns about a potential correction in ADA's price, especially as investors increasingly prioritize real-world use cases for blockchain networks.

Potential for Recovery

Analyzing the weekly chart, a pattern reminiscent of previous market conditions suggests that ADA could see a recovery. The price has made a first low at $0.24, with the potential to hit a definitive cycle bottom at $0.14. If this pattern holds, ADA could recover to $0.47, representing a potential gain of 183% in the near term. However, the long-term upside remains constrained due to the blockchain's inability to demonstrate real-world use cases and its failure to capitalize on major trends in the crypto space.

Conclusion

While there is a short-term potential for a rally in ADA's price, the long-term outlook is clouded by its status as a "zombie chain" that has not effectively engaged with significant trends in the cryptocurrency market. Investors should weigh the risks carefully before considering an investment in Cardano.