Market Analysis Summary: Busy Week Ahead - US ISM Manufacturing PMI Today

Author: Martin Lam

Date: August 3, 2026

Key Takeaways

• President Trump indicated a potential suspension of new strikes against Iran if a swift agreement is reached regarding Iran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• U.S.–Iran talks are anticipated to occur on Monday.
• Risk appetite improved on Friday, driven by positive earnings from technology companies, which boosted equity markets.
• The U.S. dollar continued its decline, while gold and oil prices showed divergent trends.

Today's Focus

This week features significant economic releases, including the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, SpaceX's first quarterly report, lock-up expirations, and final manufacturing PMIs from various countries. The highlight for today is the U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is forecasted to rise to 54 from a previous 53.3, providing insights into the manufacturing sector's resilience amid current interest rate conditions.

Global Market Review (August 3, 2026)

U.S. equities closed higher last Friday, with notable gains from Amazon, which surged by 15%. Weekly performance was as follows:

• S&P 500: +1.05%
• Nasdaq: +1.59%
• Dow: +1%

The dollar index fell by 0.19% to 99.812, marking a weekly decline of 1.64%, the largest since late January. Gold prices fell over 1% on Friday but achieved their first monthly gain in five months. WTI crude oil rose over 3% on Friday due to supply concerns, although its weekly performance was negative.

Key Events Today

• 07:00 AU Manufacturing PMI Final JUL
• 08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Final JUL
• 09:45 CN Manufacturing PMI Final JUL
• 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final JUL
• 16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final JUL
• 16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final JUL
• 21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final JUL
• 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI JUL
• 20:30 US Balance of Trade JUN
• 22:00 US Factory Orders MoM JUN

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.1577 / 1.1592
Support: 1.1497 / 1.1483

The EUR/USD pair fell before rebounding on Friday, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone and German GDP data, which reinforced expectations for an ECB rate hike. A decisive break above 1.1550 is needed to consolidate momentum.

Bias: Short-term bullish

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.3517 / 1.3560
Support: 1.3416 / 1.3382

The GBP/USD pair recovered after reaching 1.3400, supported by dollar weakness, and hit a high not seen since July 16. A break above 1.3500 could attract more buying.

Bias: Short-term bullish

USD/JPY

Resistance: 157.40 / 158.47
Support: 155.04 / 154.00

The Yen posted its largest weekly gain since February after Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed coordinated intervention with the U.S. to buy yen. Watch 155 as key support.

Bias: Short-term pressured

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 83.44 / 87.31
Support: 77.19 / 74.07

OPEC+ agreed to raise September output by 188,000 bpd. Peace talks and output increases kept WTI below $80. A confirmed break below the 20-day MA could target $77 support.

Bias: Short-term pressured

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4117 / 4142
Support: 4038 / 4014

Gold fell to approximately $4,020 but remains supported by hopes of U.S.–Iran talks. Short-term downward pressure persists.

Bias: Short-term pressured

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52,823 / 53,061
Support: 52,065 / 51,830

U.S. indices rose last Friday after intraday swings, with the Dow posting modest gains. Focus on resistance near 52,900.

Bias: Mildly bullish

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 28,867 / 29,194
Support: 28,091 / 27,831

The Nasdaq extended gains last Friday, with Amazon surging while Apple fell 7%. The index closed near the 10-day MA, and its direction will depend on whether support holds or breaks.

Bias: Mildly bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 64,772 / 65,874
Support: 62,349 / 61,266

Bitcoin traded above $63k, rising slightly as markets absorbed losses from Coldcard wallets and Trump Media's BTC sales. Short-term rebound is capped.

Bias: Rebound capped

Conclusion

This week is pivotal for market participants, with significant economic data releases expected to influence market sentiment and trading strategies. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility.