Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Brent Near $72.30 Fibonacci Cap – Break or Pullback?

Author: Arslan Ali

Published: February 20, 2026

Key Points

• WTI crude oil prices surged above $66, marking a 5% weekly gain due to geopolitical tensions.
• Natural Gas is consolidating around $2.98, below a resistance level of $3.30, indicating potential for a breakout.
• Brent crude is testing the $72.30 Fibonacci resistance after rebounding from $66.80 support.

Market Overview

Crude oil futures have recently surpassed $66 per barrel, approaching a six-month high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions that raise concerns about supply disruptions. The market is particularly sensitive to potential supply issues from key export routes in the Middle East.

Additionally, U.S. government data revealed a significant drop in crude oil stockpiles, with a decrease of 9 million barrels, the largest since early September. This decline suggests robust demand and tightening supplies, contributing to a bullish outlook for oil and natural gas markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas futures are currently trading at approximately $2.98, consolidating just below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $3.30. The price has retraced from a peak of $4.30 and is now fluctuating between $2.65 and $3.30. Recent trading activity shows small real bodies near $3, indicating a balance in price action.

The 50-day moving average is positioned just above the current price at $3.30, while the 200-day moving average is at $2.50, supporting a bullish long-term outlook. The RSI is neutral at around 50. A breakout above $3.30 could target $3.90, while a failure to maintain above current levels could see a drop to $2.10.

Trade Idea: Consider buying above $3.35 with a target of $3.90 and a stop loss below $2.65.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is trading around $66, having reclaimed the $65.50 resistance after breaking through a support trendline. The price has shown strong gains from the $61.90 level, supported by a rising channel and the 200-day moving average. Recent candles indicate hesitation near the $67.00 resistance level.

The short-term structure is bolstered by a rising 50-day moving average at $64.10, with the RSI at 60, indicating positive momentum. A Fibonacci extension suggests a potential upside target of $68.00, while a failure to break through could lead to a retest of $65.50.

Trade Idea: Consider buying above $67, targeting $68, with a stop loss below $65.50.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is currently trading around $71 after a strong rally from $66.80. The price is testing the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $71.00 and the recent swing high at $72.30. Recent trading has shown smaller bodies and upper wicks, indicating hesitation below this resistance level.

The rising trendline from $66.80 remains intact, with the 50-day moving average providing support at $68.90. The RSI is around 62, nearing overbought territory. A successful breakout above $72.30 could lead to a target of $73.25, while a failure may result in a pullback towards $70.20 or $69.50.

Trade Idea: Consider buying above $72.40, aiming for $73.25, with a stop loss below $70.90.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics for oil and natural gas are influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic supply data, creating a bullish sentiment in the short term. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and consider strategic entry points based on the outlined trade ideas.