COT Update: Gold Breaks Down as Crowded Commodity Longs Continue to Unwind

Author: Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy

Date: June 8, 2026

Key Highlights

• The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the week ending June 2, 2026, shows significant changes in futures positions by hedge funds across forex and commodities.
• In the forex market, speculators shifted their positions, increasing long positions in the EUR, CHF, and GBP while reducing exposure in the JPY, AUD, and CAD.
• Gold has faced downward pressure, breaking below key support levels, while copper reached a five-year high in net long positions.
• Brent crude longs fell to a four-month low due to expectations of supply normalization in the Middle East.

Forex Market Insights

During the week ending June 2, the aggregate long USD position remained stable at $16.6 billion. However, there was a notable rotation in positions:

• Increased buying of the EUR, CHF, and GBP.
• Increased net short positions in the JPY, reaching a 22-month high of 130,000 contracts.

Gold Market Analysis

Gold has been on a downward trend since mid-April, influenced by inflation concerns and a stronger dollar. Following a robust US jobs report, gold closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023. Key support levels to watch are:

• Support zone at $4,100–$4,075.
• Resistance levels at $4,432 (200-day MA), $4,490 (recent high), and $4,635 (channel resistance).

Commodities Overview

The COT report indicates aggressive long liquidation in agricultural commodities, particularly in grains, sugar, and lean hogs. The combined net long in agriculture has nearly halved from last month's highs. Key points include:

• Brent crude's net long fell to 253,000 contracts, while WTI found support from US crude inventory draws.
• Gold's vulnerability increased after breaking below its 200-day moving average.
• In agriculture, significant reductions in bullish positions were noted, particularly in corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes how crowded positioning in various markets has left prices susceptible to sharp movements once key technical levels are breached. The ongoing adjustments in speculative positions highlight the dynamic nature of the commodities and forex markets.

Understanding the COT Report

The COT reports, released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), provide insights into the open interest in futures markets, categorizing positions by different user groups. This analysis focuses on the behavior of speculators, as they tend to react quickly to market changes, providing valuable insights into potential trends and reversals.