US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Dips on Durable Goods – GBP/USD and EUR/USD to Rally?

Author: Arslan Ali

Published: March 25, 2026

Key Points

• The Dollar Index (DXY) is around 99.30, maintaining trendline support at 98.89 as safe-haven demand decreases.
• The Euro has broken past its descending trendline, targeting 1.1637 as it builds momentum with higher highs.
• GBP/USD bulls are defending the 1.3350 support level, aiming for a bounce towards the 1.3450 resistance.

Market Overview

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading between 99.25 and 99.33, showing signs of softening after a recent boost from safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict. This situation has led to rising oil prices, raising inflation concerns and suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates soon. However, potential diplomatic resolutions have eased some risk concerns, prompting traders to take profits on the dollar.

Recent Market Drivers

On the previous day, the dollar experienced a bounce as investors reacted to increased uncertainty in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices. The Fed's hawkish stance and rising yields also contributed to the dollar's strength. The Euro faced pressure near 1.1600 due to inflation concerns in the Eurozone, while the British Pound remained stable around 1.3410, as expectations grew that the Bank of England would maintain interest rates amid inflation worries.

Economic Outlook

Traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly Durable Goods Orders, which are expected to rise by 1.3% following a previous decline of 6.2%. A strong report could reinforce the Fed's cautious approach to interest rates and support the dollar. In Europe, inflation and growth indicators will be key, while UK data may influence expectations regarding the Bank of England's next moves.

Technical Analysis

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The DXY is trading around $99.27, held back by trendline support at $98.89. After a brief rise to $100.15, the price has retreated, indicating ongoing selling pressure. Key support levels are at $98.89 and $98.59, while resistance is found at $99.80 and $100.15. A break above $99.80 could lead to a rise towards $100.15, while a drop below $98.89 may push the price down to $98.23.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is currently at $1.3417, testing a descending trendline that has capped rallies since early February. The price is below the 200-period moving average at $1.35, with the 50-period moving average at $1.3350 acting as support. A decisive break above $1.3450 is needed for further upward movement, while a rejection could lead to a retest of $1.3350.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is hovering around $1.1605 after breaking past a descending trendline and reclaiming support at $1.1576. The price is testing resistance at $1.1637, with the 200-period moving average above posing a challenge for further gains. Immediate support levels are at $1.1576 and $1.1533, while resistance is at $1.1637 and $1.1697. A break above $1.1637 could lead to a target of $1.1697.

Trade Ideas

• For DXY: Consider a buy setup if a bounce occurs above $99.80, targeting $100.15 with a stop loss below $99.20.
• For GBP/USD: Look to go long if the price breaks above $1.3450, targeting $1.3575 with a stop loss below $1.3350.
• For EUR/USD: Consider buying above $1.1637 with a target of $1.1697 and a stop loss below $1.1575.

Conclusion

The currency markets are currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic data releases, with the DXY showing signs of consolidation. Traders should remain vigilant as upcoming data could significantly impact market sentiment and currency movements.