Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Triangle Setups Hold as Markets Eye NFP Risk
Published: January 9, 2026
Market Overview
Gold and silver prices are trading cautiously as a strong US dollar offsets safe-haven demand ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The price of gold (XAU/USD) remains depressed around the 4,463 level, with an intraday low of 4,452. The decline is primarily attributed to the stronger US dollar, which gained traction following the release of US weekly labor market data.
US Labor Market Data
The US Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose modestly to 208,000 for the week ending January 3, slightly below market expectations of 210,000 but above the previous week’s revised figure of 200,000. This indicates a resilient labor market, which supports the strength of the dollar and limits the near-term upside for precious metals.
US Dollar Strength and Fed Rate Expectations
The broad-based US dollar is strong, reaching a near one-month high. Expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve may limit further gains ahead of the NFP report. The US economy is expected to add around 60,000 jobs in December, slightly fewer than the previous month, with the unemployment rate forecast to ease to 4.5%. These figures will influence Fed rate cut expectations and impact movements in the US dollar and gold prices.
Geopolitical Tensions and Gold's Safe Haven Appeal
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including US involvement in Venezuela, tensions between China and Japan, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are supporting gold prices as a safe haven. These factors contribute to cautious investor sentiment, which may help limit losses in gold and silver prices.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold is expected to grind higher towards $4,520 if support holds near $4,470, while silver targets $82.60 from around $77, although dollar strength may limit upside potential ahead of the NFP data release.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is trading near $4,474, consolidating below a descending trendline from the $4,550 peak. The price action shows higher lows, forming a tightening triangle structure. The 50-period moving average (MA) is turning higher near $4,450, while the 200-period MA around $4,375 supports the broader uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 55, indicating mild bullish momentum. A trade idea suggests buying near $4,430, targeting $4,520, with a stop below $4,395.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver is trading near $77.25, holding above a rising trendline that has guided the uptrend since mid-December. The price rebounded from the $75.10–$74.10 demand zone, indicating active dip-buying. The structure remains bullish within an ascending channel, with resistance capped near $82.60. The 50-period MA is flattening just below the price, while the 200-period MA near $72.50 supports the broader trend. The RSI is recovering toward 50, showing momentum stabilization. A trade idea suggests buying near $75.20, targeting $82.60, with a stop below $73.80.
Conclusion
As markets await the NFP report, gold and silver prices are influenced by the strength of the US dollar and geopolitical tensions. Traders are advised to monitor key support levels and potential breakout points in the context of upcoming economic data.