Key Highlights
- Natural gas futures remain stable despite a significant storage withdrawal.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 360 Bcf withdrawal, flipping storage from surplus to a deficit.
- Traders are focusing on weather forecasts and production levels rather than the current storage deficit.
Market Overview
As of early February 2026, U.S. natural gas futures are trading nearly flat, with March Natural Gas priced at $3.486, down 0.66%. This stability comes despite a substantial 360 Bcf withdrawal from storage reported by the EIA, which has shifted the U.S. gas storage from a surplus to a 27 Bcf deficit compared to the five-year average.
EIA Storage Report
The EIA's report indicated that working gas in storage was at 2,463 Bcf as of January 30, 2026, marking a net decrease of 360 Bcf from the previous week. While this figure is 41 Bcf higher than the same time last year, it is 27 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,490 Bcf. The market's muted reaction to this deficit can be attributed to several factors.
Reasons for Market Stability
Despite the deficit, traders are not overly concerned for a few reasons:
- It is still early in the season, and if the deficit persists into the spring shoulder season, it could become bullish as demand rises in the summer.
- Traders anticipate that warmer weather will reduce demand and that production will increase, which could alleviate current storage concerns.
Additionally, the unpredictability of weather patterns complicates the assessment of the storage draw, as factors like freeze-offs and power outages can significantly impact gas supply.
Weather Forecasts and Technical Outlook
As traders shift their focus to weather forecasts, the market is expected to remain range-bound. The current trading is above the 200-day moving average at $3.403, suggesting a slight upside bias. A breakout above the 50% level at $3.502 could lead to a rally towards the 50-day moving average at $3.771. Conversely, if the market fails to hold above the 200-day MA, Fibonacci support levels at $3.284 and this week’s low at $3.155 may provide a buffer against selling pressure.
Conclusion
In summary, while the recent EIA report indicates a shift to a storage deficit, the market's reaction has been tempered by expectations of warmer weather and increased production. Traders are likely to remain vigilant, awaiting further weather updates that could influence future price movements.