Market Analysis Summary: Tariffs at 15% Lift Gold, Weigh on Oil

Author: Martin Lam

Date: February 23, 2026

Market Highlights

Over the weekend, former President Trump announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, which has reignited policy uncertainty and driven a return of safe-haven demand. In early Asian trading, spot gold rose to approximately $5,140, extending gains from the previous week. This comes in the context of the U.S. Q4 GDP growth being reported at only 1.4%, significantly below the forecast of 3.0%, while core PCE inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating a scenario of "slowing growth + sticky inflation." Consequently, markets are pricing in two potential rate cuts this year, with the first expected in June.

Equity Market Performance

U.S. equities closed higher on the previous Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.69%, the Nasdaq up 0.90%, and the Dow Jones up 0.47%. The Supreme Court's rejection of emergency tariff measures provided a brief respite from concerns, but the subsequent tariff escalation limited any sustained recovery in risk assets. The U.S. Dollar Index fell back to around 96.8, ending a four-day rally, while the euro and pound saw slight increases. The USD/JPY pair remained above 155.

Commodity Market Insights

Precious metals, particularly gold, were buoyed by the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, which could lead to further market turmoil. Additionally, there are increasing signs that the U.S. may consider military action against Iran. Spot gold closed up 2.1% on Friday at $5,104.34 per ounce. In the oil market, WTI crude settled at $66.39, marking a weekly increase of over 5%. However, during Asian trading hours, WTI retreated to $65.9 due to escalating trade tensions. Geopolitical risks provided some support for oil prices, but concerns over demand capped further gains, resulting in a tug-of-war in the market.

Key Outlook

With China and Japan on holiday, thinner liquidity in Asian markets may lead to increased volatility. In Europe, attention will be on Germany’s February Ifo index, with a forecast of 88.4. A stronger reading could bolster the euro, while a weaker one may limit EUR/USD gains. In the U.S. session, December Factory Orders and the Dallas Fed index are scheduled for release. Softer data could reinforce growth concerns, potentially pressuring the dollar and equities while supporting gold prices. Gold remains firm below the resistance level of 5,150, while oil prices are expected to trade within a range due to demand concerns and geopolitical support.

Key Data and Events

• China Holiday
• Japan Holiday
• 17:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate FEB (Forecast: 88.4)
• 23:00 US Factory Orders MoM DEC
• 23:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index FEB

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.1847 / 1.1866 | Support: 1.1766 / 1.1747

The EUR/USD pair rebounds near 1.1780 as softer U.S. growth offsets sticky inflation. Rate-cut expectations remain divided.

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.3562 / 1.3586 | Support: 1.3460 / 1.3430

The GBP/USD pair recovers toward 1.3480 but remains sensitive to U.S. policy uncertainty.

USD/JPY

Resistance: 155.54 / 156.36 | Support: 153.57 / 152.92

The USD/JPY pair holds above 155 as Japan’s inflation slows, limiting BOJ tightening prospects.

US Crude Oil Futures

Resistance: 66.76 / 67.35 | Support: 64.77 / 64.31

WTI trades near $65.9 as tariff escalation clouds demand outlook despite geopolitical support.

Spot Gold

Resistance: 5202 / 5268 | Support: 5098 / 5033

Spot gold rises toward $5,140 on renewed safe-haven demand and rate-cut expectations.

Dow Futures

Resistance: 49,716 / 50,020 | Support: 49,224 / 48,978

The Dow Futures stabilize after recent gains but face caution from tariff escalation.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 25,224 / 25,404 | Support: 24,641 / 24,464

The NASDAQ 100 remains supported by tech strength but faces policy uncertainty and earnings risk.

Bitcoin

Resistance: 69318/70790 | Support: 66078/64630

Bitcoin trades above $67,500 but remains pressured by rate uncertainty and U.S.-Iran tensions.

Conclusion

The market is currently navigating through a complex landscape of tariff increases, geopolitical tensions, and economic data releases, which are influencing asset prices across the board. Investors should remain vigilant and consider the implications of these developments on their trading strategies.