Market Analysis Summary - U.S. ADP in Focus
Date: January 7, 2026
Market Highlights
U.S. equities experienced a positive trading session, with notable gains in chip stocks driven by renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new all-time high, closing up by 0.99%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw increases of 0.6% and 0.65%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.19% to 98.57, while the EUR/USD pair fell by 0.26% to 1.169.
Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $4,496.79 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand following the U.S. arrest of Venezuela’s president, which escalated global geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, oil prices saw a decline as the market assessed the balance between expected ample global supply and uncertainties regarding Venezuelan crude output.
Key Outlook
Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. December ADP employment report, which is anticipated to show a job growth of 50,000, a recovery from the previous decline of 32,000. This report is crucial as it may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. Additionally, the U.S. December ISM non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be reported at 52.3, slightly down from 52.6.
Key Data and Events Today
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM NOV
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate DEC
- 18:00 EU CPI YoY Flash DEC
- 21:15 US ADP Employment Change DEC
- 23:00 US Factory Orders OCT
- 23:00 US ISM Services PMI DEC
- 23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair slipped to 1.169, influenced by softer eurozone inflation which weighed on yields and supported the dollar. The pair fell below the resistance zone of 1.1712–1.1734, indicating weakened near-term momentum.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD retreated after testing the 1.3550 area, as a stronger dollar found support in yields. The price action suggests a corrective move rather than a trend change, as long as buying interest remains around the 1.3453–1.3468 support zone.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY moved back towards the 156.5–156.6 range, with firmer U.S. yields reducing safe-haven demand for the yen. The support zone at 155.82–156.08 is crucial for a potential rebound.
Crude Oil Futures
WTI crude oil prices slipped towards $57, facing resistance from a descending channel. Key support is identified at $55.54–$54.97, with ample supply weighing on prices.
Spot Gold
Gold prices approached the $4,500 level, with resistance between $4,500 and $4,550. The broader bullish structure remains intact, supported by geopolitical risks and expectations of rate cuts.
Dow Futures
Dow Futures reached record highs, with resistance between 49,772 and 50,088. A failure to break higher may lead to consolidation or a pullback towards support levels.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 index edged higher but remains capped by resistance levels. Gains were led by AI and semiconductor stocks, although valuation concerns persist.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin hovered near $94,000, facing resistance between $94,652 and $95,844. Concerns regarding unrealized losses in Q4 have tempered bullish momentum.