Market Analysis Summary - February 19, 2026
Macro Update
The S&P 500 index experienced a rebound, gaining 0.56%, with the Nasdaq 100 rising by 0.76% and the Dow Jones increasing by 0.25%. This recovery was primarily driven by strong performances from technology shares, particularly NVIDIA, Amazon, and Microsoft, following recent valuation concerns.
NVIDIA Deal Boosts Sentiment
NVIDIA's stock advanced after announcing a multi-year agreement to supply Meta with millions of artificial intelligence (AI) chips. This news positively impacted broader semiconductor and storage companies linked to AI demand.
Software Sector Stabilizes
The S&P 500 software and services index stabilized after earlier losses in February, aided by Cadence's revenue forecast beat. However, Palo Alto Networks saw a decline after revising its full-year profit outlook downward.
Fed Minutes Curb Rate-Cut Hopes
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting indicated that policymakers are not in a rush to ease monetary policy, with some members open to further rate hikes if inflation remains high. The market is currently pricing in about a 50% chance of a rate cut in June.
Asia Tracks Wall Street Higher
Asian markets followed Wall Street's upward trend, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rising by 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.7%, and South Korea's Kospi surged over 3% to reach a record high. European futures indicated a mixed opening.
Oil Extends Rally on Iran Tensions
Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices increased by more than 4% as investors assessed supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices remained near $5000, and the US dollar strengthened alongside rising US yields.
Technical Analysis
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 is recovering from a low of 24,387 but faces resistance at the January to February resistance line at 25,057. A breakthrough could target last week's high of 25,382. Conversely, a drop below 24,387 would bring the November low of 23,854 into focus.
Short-term outlook: Bullish while above the February 17 low of 24,387.
Medium-term outlook: Bullish while above the February 17 low; failure to hold would neutralize this outlook.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is attempting to stabilize above its early February low of $1.1766 but remains under pressure. A failure at this level could push it back towards the $1.1700 region, with downside pressure persisting while capped by the January to February downtrend line at $1.1871.
Short-term outlook: Bearish while below the February 17 high of $1.1898, targeting the $1.1700 region.
Medium-term outlook: Bullish while above the January low of $1.1573.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude oil has bounced off its 200-day simple moving average at $62.30 and is breaking through its January to February resistance line at $65.40, targeting the late January high of $66.48. Potential declines may find support around the February 9 high of $64.88.
Short-term outlook: Bullish while above the February 17 low of $61.87.
Medium-term outlook: Bullish while above the February 3 low of $61.12.
Conclusion
The market is currently experiencing a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments across different sectors, with technology stocks leading the recovery. Geopolitical tensions are influencing oil prices, while the Fed's stance on interest rates remains a critical factor for market participants.