Market Analysis Summary: Oil and Natural Gas Forecasts

Published: August 20, 2026

Author: Vladimir Zernov

Key Highlights

• Natural gas prices have retreated following the EIA report.
• WTI oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
• Brent oil is testing new highs amid expectations of continued supply constraints.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural gas prices experienced a pullback as traders reacted to the latest EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, which indicated an increase of 16 Bcf in working gas storage, slightly below the analyst forecast of 19 Bcf. Current storage levels are 28 Bcf lower than last year but 185 Bcf above the five-year average.

The technical outlook for natural gas remains unchanged, with resistance levels identified between $2.75 and $2.80. A successful settlement above $2.80 could lead to a rise towards the 50-day moving average at $2.97, with further resistance at $3.00 to $3.05. Conversely, a drop below $2.75 could test the $2.70 level, and further declines could see prices approach August lows near $2.62.

WTI Oil Market Dynamics

WTI oil prices have gained momentum as President Trump issued warnings that any country providing support to Iran would face severe economic repercussions. This has led to speculation about the potential for renewed trade tensions, particularly with China, which is a major buyer of Iranian oil.

Traders are skeptical about the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions in bringing Iran back to the negotiating table. The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated plans for a coordinated economic isolation of Iran, which could significantly impact global oil prices. WTI oil is currently testing resistance levels between $86.00 and $86.50, with a potential rise towards $91.00 to $91.50 if these levels are surpassed. Support is noted at $84.50, with further support at $81.50 to $82.00.

Brent Oil Price Movements

Brent oil has also rallied, driven by expectations that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will not resume soon. The market is experiencing a decline in global oil reserves, which is contributing to bullish sentiment. If Brent oil settles above $94.00, it could target resistance levels at $95.50 to $96.00, with a potential breakout towards $100.00.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics for natural gas and oil are heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing tensions with Iran. Traders are advised to monitor resistance and support levels closely as these factors continue to evolve.