Market Analysis Summary

Summary

Recent developments have cast doubt on the potential for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, particularly following President Trump's dissatisfaction with Iran's latest proposal. This uncertainty is compounded by the World Bank's forecast of a 24% rise in energy prices by 2026 due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

Additionally, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its exit from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1, which is expected to weaken the group's influence over global oil supply.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to maintain its current interest rates, but market participants will closely scrutinize the language used in the Fed's statements regarding inflation and future policy guidance. A hawkish tone could bolster the U.S. dollar while exerting downward pressure on gold and equities, whereas a dovish stance might have the opposite effect. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will also be in focus for its perspective on inflation and its implications for the Canadian dollar (CAD).

Global Market Review (April 29, 2026)

U.S. stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling 0.05%, the S&P 500 down 0.49%, and the Nasdaq dropping 0.9%. This retreat from record highs was influenced by renewed concerns regarding the artificial intelligence sector ahead of earnings reports from major tech companies. U.S. Treasury yields reached a three-week high, and the dollar strengthened amid skepticism about a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Gold prices fell to a near four-week low, driven by inflation concerns following Trump's dissatisfaction with Iran's proposal. Meanwhile, oil prices increased due to fears of supply shortages linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, further exacerbated by the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC.

Key Economic Events

• Japan Holiday
• 09:30 AU CPI YoY MAR
• 17:00 EU Economic Sentiment APR
• 20:00 EU GERMANY CPI MoM Prel APR
• 20:30 US Building Permits MAR
• 20:30 US Housing Starts MAR
• 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MAR
• 21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 22:30 BoC Press Conference
• 22:30 EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.1746/1.1771 | Support: 1.1643/1.1620

The EUR/USD pair slipped towards 1.1708 as the dollar recovered amid renewed war concerns in Iran and rising oil prices. A cautious Fed tone may keep the euro below the resistance zone.

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.3546/1.3561 | Support: 1.3482/1.3467

The GBP/USD eased towards 1.3520, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising inflation risks. The pair needs to break above resistance to regain upward momentum.

USD/JPY

Resistance: 159.86/160.13 | Support: 159.26/159.00

USD/JPY held near 159.65 after the BoJ maintained rates. The pair remains supported, but caution is warranted as it approaches the 160 level.

Crude Oil Futures

Resistance: 105.63/108.70 | Support: 95.51/92.39

WTI crude oil surged 3.7% to $99.93, driven by supply concerns. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4638/4675 | Support: 4540/4511

Gold prices fell nearly 2% to around $4,593, influenced by inflation concerns and reduced rate-cut expectations.

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 49815/50366 | Support: 48562/48002

The Dow slipped 0.05% as inflation concerns and mixed corporate results kept buying interest selective.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 27451/27830 | Support: 26551/26165

The NASDAQ 100 fell 0.90% amid AI growth concerns and upcoming earnings reports.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 77298/78136 | Support: 75268/74602

Bitcoin slipped towards $76,377, facing pressure from geopolitical tensions and inflation risks.