Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakout Signals Hint at Upside Momentum
Author: Bruce Powers
Published: March 6, 2026
Overview
Natural gas has confirmed a bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern, indicating potential for a rally. The market has reclaimed key moving averages, although resistance near previous highs may limit immediate momentum.
Key Developments
- Natural gas confirmed an upside breakout from a bullish falling wedge on Friday.
- The market reclaimed the 20-day moving average at $3.06 and surpassed a minor swing high of $3.19.
- A trend reversal signal was noted above the lower swing high at $3.25.
- The closing price on Friday will determine the confirmation of these breakouts.
Recent Market Context
Prior to the breakout, natural gas had been consolidating in a bearish position below its long-term uptrend line. The market saw a significant decline from a peak of $7.44 in January to a low of $2.78 on February 26, marking a 62.7% drop. This decline is considered the largest correction in the long-term uptrend that began after the 2024 low.
Potential for Further Upside
The bullish price action on Friday suggests a possible bounce back into a rising trend channel, with expectations of a continuation towards the channel's midpoint. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bearish correction presents an initial upside target.
Resistance Levels
The first significant resistance level is near the lower swing high at $3.66, which coincides with the 200-day moving average at $3.56. A recovery above these levels would further confirm the breakout and indicate a stronger bullish trend.
Conclusion
Natural gas is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal after a significant correction. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and the overall market sentiment to gauge the sustainability of this upward momentum.
About the Author
Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance professional with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MBA and is a CMT® charter holder, having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms.