Market Quick Take - 25 February 2026

Market Drivers and Catalysts

• Equities: US markets rebounded as fears surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) subsided. European markets stabilized, buoyed by gains in the semiconductor sector, while Asian markets showed mixed results.
• Volatility: The VIX index decreased, indicating reduced market anxiety, although 0-day-to-expiration (0DTE) puts remained relatively expensive.
• Digital Assets: Major cryptocurrencies showed strength, while some crypto proxies experienced slight declines.
• Fixed Income: Japan's yield curve steepened sharply following the appointment of dovish nominees to the Bank of Japan.
• Currencies: The Japanese Yen weakened due to dovish signals from the BoJ, while the US Dollar also saw slight declines. The Australian Dollar strengthened on positive inflation data.
• Commodities: Gold and silver prices rebounded significantly during the Asian trading session.

Macro Events

Key macroeconomic events included:

• US President Trump's State of the Union address, which lacked specific policy details but highlighted economic achievements.
• Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi announced two new Bank of Japan nominees perceived as supportive of reflationary policies, leading to a steepening of the yield curve.
• US Consumer Confidence rose to 91.2 in February, indicating resilience despite economic concerns.
• The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, suggesting a cooling housing market.
• US private sector job growth accelerated, with an average addition of 12,750 jobs per week.
• The UK CBI retail sales balance fell to -43, reflecting poor sales and low sentiment among retailers.

Earnings This Week

Notable earnings reports include:

• Today: Nvidia, HSBC Holdings, Lowes Companies, and others.
• Thursday: Deutsche Telekom, Salesforce, and more.
• Friday: BASF, Holcim, and Swiss Re.

Equities Overview

US markets saw the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increase by 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.0%. Key highlights include:

• AMD shares surged 8.8% following a significant agreement with Meta.
• European markets remained steady, with the STOXX Europe 600 rising slightly.
• Asian markets were mixed, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng declining while China's Shanghai Composite gained.

Volatility Insights

The VIX index closed at 19.55, indicating a cooling of volatility. Investors are still cautious, with a focus on upcoming earnings reports, particularly from Nvidia.

Digital Assets

Cryptocurrency markets showed signs of recovery, with Bitcoin trading around $65,041 and Ethereum at $1,889. However, some ETFs showed a more cautious tone, indicating a measured approach to risk.

Fixed Income Analysis

US Treasuries experienced a sell-off as risk sentiment improved, with the 2-year yield rising slightly. Japanese government bonds also sold off following dovish BoJ nominations.

Commodities Update

Gold and silver prices rebounded strongly, with gold testing levels above $5,200 per ounce. Crude oil prices remained volatile but backed away from recent highs.

Currencies Overview

The US Dollar weakened slightly, while the Australian Dollar gained strength due to positive inflation data. The Euro also saw a rebound against the Dollar.