Market Summary - February 23, 2026
On February 23, 2026, significant developments in the financial markets were driven by a ruling from the US Supreme Court, which invalidated the tariff system previously implemented by former President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response to this ruling, Trump announced a new uniform global tariff rate of 15%, an increase from the previously indicated 10%.
Market Reactions
The ruling has introduced a wave of uncertainty regarding potential tariff refunds, leading to increased legal and policy ambiguity. As a result, US index futures experienced a decline of up to 1.00% in early trading. The US dollar weakened, falling between 0.3% and 0.4%, while the EUR/USD pair saw a slight increase of 0.31%.
Commodity Prices
Gold prices rose by 1.12%, reaching USD 5,130, marking the highest level in three weeks. Conversely, oil prices dropped approximately 1.00% due to concerns over demand stemming from ongoing tariff tensions. Investors are also closely monitoring the potential resumption of talks between the US and Iran.
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin experienced a significant drop of around 5%, falling below USD 65,000 after breaking key technical support levels. However, prices have since stabilized around USD 65,500.
Forecasts and Future Outlook
Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil for Q4 2026 to USD 60 and USD 56, respectively, citing lower inventories in OECD countries. Despite this upgrade, the bank anticipates a supply surplus in 2026 unless significant disruptions occur. The forecasts suggest more stable prices in 2027, with moderate demand and slower supply growth expected. However, potential easing of sanctions on Iran or Russia could pose downside risks to these projections.
Geopolitical Developments
In a related geopolitical context, Iran has reportedly signed a €500 million agreement with Russia for the delivery of air defense systems and missiles, with deliveries scheduled between 2027 and 2029. Additionally, according to the New York Times, Trump is contemplating limited airstrikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets, nuclear facilities, and missile systems, with broader military escalation remaining a possibility if these limited actions do not yield results. US and Iranian negotiators are set to meet in Geneva, with officials indicating that this could be the last diplomatic opportunity before military action is considered.
Conclusion
The market is currently navigating through a complex landscape of legal, economic, and geopolitical challenges, with the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs being a pivotal factor influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics.