Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Middle East Tensions Lift XAU, XAG – CPI Risk Ahead
By Arslan Ali | Updated: Mar 10, 2026
Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) has managed to hold above the $5,175 trendline, driven by rising geopolitical tensions that have revived demand for safe-haven assets. Despite a strong US dollar, gold's price has nudged higher, reflecting investor sentiment amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $89, with a focus on maintaining support at $85 and a breakout level at $91. The rising oil prices pose a risk of fueling inflation, which could limit expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold Demand
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified, particularly following comments from Iranian officials rejecting US President Donald Trump's assertion that the conflict could soon be resolved. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has stated that Iran will determine the timing of any resolution, further escalating tensions.
As geopolitical uncertainties rise, investors typically flock to safe-haven assets like gold, which has seen increased demand as a result.
Impact of Rising Oil Prices
Crude oil prices are on the rise again, primarily due to concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments. This increase in oil prices could lead to higher inflation, which may deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates as previously anticipated.
Investors are now awaiting key US inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape.
Technical Analysis of Gold and Silver
Gold Analysis
Gold is currently trading around $5,183, facing resistance at $5,276. The price is supported by the 200-EMA at $5,014 and the 50-EMA at $5,175. Recent candlestick patterns indicate potential selling pressure near the resistance level, but no decisive breakdown has occurred yet. A break above $5,276 could lead to a rise towards $5,410, while a drop below $5,175 may test support at $5,014.
Silver Analysis
Silver is trading near $89.15, approaching resistance at $91.20 while maintaining support at $85.45. The price respects a rising trendline from early February, indicating a constructive medium-term outlook. The 50 EMA has crossed above the 200 EMA, providing additional support. If silver breaks above $91.20, it may rally towards $96; however, losing $85 could lead to a retest of $80.