US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Climbs to $99.29 as Ceasefire Holds

Published: June 03, 2026

Key Highlights

• The US-Iran ceasefire has been in effect for over nine weeks, leading to increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to $99.29, supported by a bullish trend and higher lows.
• EUR/USD is holding at $1.1649, while GBP/USD has climbed to $1.3475, both showing signs of resilience.

Market Overview

The U.S. dollar has maintained a strong position as of June 3, 2026, amidst ongoing concerns about inflation following higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April. The year-over-year headline CPI was reported at 3.8%, with core CPI at 4.1%. These figures have diminished the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term, with Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasizing a prolonged high-rate environment.

In contrast, the euro is facing downward pressure due to the strengthening dollar and a more accommodative stance from the European Central Bank, which is responding to weak growth data. The British pound is also under scrutiny as the Bank of England monitors mixed economic signals from the UK, compounded by global uncertainties.

Technical Analysis

DXY Analysis

The DXY has reached $99.29 on the 1-hour timeframe, with green candles indicating strong support at the ascending trendline around $99.00. The market structure appears neutral-bullish, with Fibonacci levels suggesting potential resistance between $99.37 and $99.55. A trade idea is proposed to buy at $99.29, targeting $99.37 with a stop at $99.00.

GBP/USD Analysis

GBP/USD has stabilized at $1.3475, supported by green rejection candles that have defended the rising channel floor. The market structure remains bullish above $1.343, with a trade idea to buy at $1.3475, targeting $1.350 and setting a stop at $1.343.

EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD is holding steady at $1.1649, with green candles defending the ascending trendline. The market structure is neutral, testing support levels within a broader trend. A trade idea suggests buying at $1.1649, targeting $1.166, with a stop at $1.160.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics indicate a mixed outlook for the dollar against major currencies, influenced by inflationary pressures and geopolitical developments. Traders are advised to remain vigilant as they await further economic data and Federal Reserve commentary.

Author Information

Arslan Ali - A finance MBA and MPhil in behavioral finance, Arslan specializes in financial analysis and investor psychology, providing insights into market sentiment and potential overbought or oversold conditions.