Summary of Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (BofA FMS)

Date: July 14, 2026

Key Highlights

• Global investor sentiment has reached its highest level since February 2026.
• 83% of investors do not anticipate the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before the U.S. midterm elections in November.
• Fund managers have revised their year-end 2026 oil price forecast down to $71 per barrel from $86 in June.

Investor Sentiment Overview

The latest BofA FMS indicates a growing optimism among institutional investors, particularly regarding technology stocks and the overall market outlook. The survey reflects a belief that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten monetary policy further before the upcoming midterm elections.

Survey Insights

• Investor cash allocations have decreased to 3.6%, down from 4.1% in June, suggesting a potential contrarian sell signal due to excessive optimism.
• A record 54% of respondents foresee a "no landing" scenario, indicating expectations for resilient economic growth without significant slowdowns.
• Fund managers have increased their allocation to U.S. equities, marking the highest overweight level since December 2024, reflecting confidence in U.S. stock performance.
• Long positions in global semiconductor stocks remain the most crowded trade, with 82% of respondents indicating this preference for the third consecutive month.
• 61% of fund managers believe that hyperscalers will maintain or increase capital expenditures this year, supporting ongoing investment in AI infrastructure and advanced semiconductors.
• Concerns about an AI bubble have emerged, with 45% of respondents identifying it as the largest tail risk for financial markets.
• Expectations for a supportive monetary environment are reinforced by the majority of respondents not anticipating interest rate hikes before the midterms.
• Fund managers have lowered their oil price forecast, indicating expectations for reduced inflationary pressures from energy markets.

Market Analysis

Recent trends in the US100 index suggest that previous tests of the upper boundary of the prevailing trend channel have led to significant rejections and downside movements. If this pattern continues, a rejection from current levels could lead to a pullback towards the 29,000-point area.

Conclusion

The BofA FMS highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook among institutional investors, particularly in technology and U.S. equities, while also acknowledging potential risks associated with AI valuations and energy market dynamics.