Market Summary - September 2, 2026

Oil Market Update

Oil prices surged to their highest level in nearly six weeks due to renewed military actions between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. conducted approximately 100 strikes on Iranian military and maritime targets, including two state-owned tankers, as part of a new "tanker-for-tanker" policy. Although oil prices initially rose, they have since stabilized with gains of around 0.10% to 0.30%.

Despite the ongoing conflict, around 40 vessels have successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces have intercepted anti-ship missiles and drones, with President Trump asserting that the U.S. now has near-total control over this critical shipping route. He dismissed claims that he is attempting to push Iran back to negotiations, indicating a preference for maintaining military pressure on Tehran.

Currency Market Insights

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair initially saw an uptick as the yen faced pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. However, gains were later pared. Rising yields on Japanese government bonds have not provided sustained support for the yen, as market focus shifts to increasing energy import costs and broader fiscal concerns.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Update

The RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, in response to a Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate of 4.1% and ongoing risks related to energy prices. Governor Breman indicated that another rate hike is likely, although the timing remains uncertain. Following the announcement, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) weakened.

Excluding motor fuels, annual inflation fell to 2.9%, with most underlying inflation measures remaining within the target range. The RBNZ anticipates that headline inflation will return to its 1-3% target range by mid-2027, allowing for a gradual tightening of monetary policy.

New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 2.1% year-on-year in Q2, surpassing expectations. This growth was supported by household consumption, which offset weaker business investment. The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened following the positive GDP data release.

Economic Calendar Highlights

• RBNZ raises interest rates again, yet NZD falls after the decision.
• Focus on upcoming central bank decisions and the U.S. ADP employment report.
• Eurozone inflation came in below forecasts, with rising unemployment impacting EUR/USD.
• Market uncertainty persists in oil, affecting Wall Street and gold prices.