Bitcoin Market Analysis - December 2025
Author: Bob Mason
Published: December 14, 2025
Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) is at risk of a second consecutive weekly loss due to fears surrounding a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and rising Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields.
- Despite technical weaknesses, strong institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs provides a cautiously bullish outlook in the short term.
Current Market Situation
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced volatility, climbing to a high of $95,739 on December 9, before dropping to a low of $89,374 by December 11. The anticipation of a BoJ rate hike has contributed to this decline, pushing BTC below the $90,000 mark.
US BTC-Spot ETF Demand
In the week ending December 12, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw a significant rebound with net inflows of $286.6 million, reversing the previous week's outflows of $87.7 million. Key inflows included:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $214.1 million
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): $84.5 million
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB): $24.6 million
This rebound in demand is crucial for maintaining price support around the $90,000 level.
Bank of Japan Rate Hikes
The BoJ is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate hike on December 19, which could narrow the interest rate differential with the US. This could lead to a potential unwind of yen carry trades, which historically has negatively impacted BTC prices.
There is a noted inverse correlation between JGB yields and BTC prices, indicating that rising yields could further pressure BTC.
Downside Risks
Despite the positive ETF inflows, several downside risks remain:
- A potential BoJ rate hike could lead to further tightening of monetary policy.
- Stronger US inflation and job data could diminish expectations for a Fed rate cut in March.
- Renewed outflows from BTC-spot ETFs could also negatively impact prices.
Technical Analysis
BTC is currently below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish trend. However, a breakout above the $94,447 resistance level could signal a bullish reversal, with targets set at $95,000 and $100,000.
Maintaining support above $90,000 is critical for a bullish outlook, while a drop below the November low of $80,523 would invalidate this structure.
Conclusion
The short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains cautiously bullish, supported by strong ETF demand and macroeconomic factors. However, traders should remain vigilant regarding the BoJ's monetary policy decisions and upcoming US economic data, which will be key drivers in the coming weeks.