Market Analysis Summary - DAX 40, AUD/USD, and Copper Prices

Publication Date: Thursday, 04 June 2026

Macro Update

• Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has led to a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $96 a barrel. This development has sparked optimism for a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran, which could reopen the Straits of Hormuz.
• Asian Equities Retreat: Geopolitical tensions have dampened risk appetite, causing the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) to decline by 1.6%. South Korean stocks fell by 2.6% after a public holiday, and Japan's Nikkei dropped by 1.4% due to renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
• Broadcom's Disappointment: Shares of Broadcom fell over 13% in after-hours trading after the company missed its second-quarter revenue forecasts. The unchanged sales outlook for 2027 raised concerns about slowing growth in the AI sector.
• Dollar Strength: The dollar index remained strong around 99.45, close to its highest level since early April, supported by ongoing tensions in the Gulf that increased demand for safe-haven assets.
• Japanese Yen: The yen hovered just below the ¥160 per dollar level, a point seen as a potential trigger for official intervention, as the Bank of Japan's Governor hinted at a near-term interest rate increase.
• Bitcoin Decline: Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in four months, dropping as much as 17% over five sessions before recovering to around $64,000, influenced by a stronger dollar and rising bond yields.

DAX 40 Analysis

The DAX 40 has been experiencing a pullback after a strong advance. It remains above the week's low of 24,762, with expectations for a recovery towards the late May low of 24,973. A further upside target is the June gap high at 25,062. A drop below 24,762 would indicate a short-term bearish outlook, potentially leading to a decline towards the April high of 24,606.

Short-term Outlook: Neutral while above 24,762.

Medium-term Outlook: Bullish while above 23,716.

AUD/USD Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading sideways, remaining above its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.7107. It is fluctuating between a recent high of $0.7200 and a low of $0.7080 from mid-May. The 55-day SMA may be revisited in the short term.

Short-term Outlook: Neutral while below $0.7200 but above $0.7080.

Medium-term Outlook: Bullish while above $0.7080.

Copper Price Analysis

Copper prices have rebounded from a low of $6.1805, reaching a new record high of $6.6367 before retreating towards the mid-May high of $6.2762. If this level fails to hold, the previous low may be revisited, with further support in the $6.1505 to $6.0806 range. A new all-time high could target the psychological level of $7.0000.

Short-term Outlook: Bearish while below $6.6367.

Medium-term Outlook: Bullish while above $6.0806.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics reflect a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, corporate earnings disappointments, and commodity price fluctuations. Investors should remain vigilant and consider these factors when making trading decisions.