Summary of Novo Nordisk's CagriSema Trial Results

On February 23, 2026, Novo Nordisk's share price experienced a significant decline following disappointing results from the REDEFINE 4 trial, which is a follow-up to the earlier REDEFINE 1 trial that had already negatively impacted the company's stock. The REDEFINE trials are focused on CagriSema, a potential successor to Wegovy, which is currently facing competition from Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, marketed as Zepbound.

Key Findings from the REDEFINE 4 Trial

The REDEFINE 4 study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of CagriSema in comparison to tirzepatide. The results indicated that patients treated with CagriSema achieved an average weight loss of 23% over a period of 84 weeks, while those on tirzepatide experienced a slightly higher average weight loss of 25.5%. Although a difference of 2.5 percentage points may seem minor, it poses a significant challenge for Novo Nordisk in positioning CagriSema as a competitive alternative to an already established product.

Market Implications

The disappointing results from the REDEFINE 4 trial have raised concerns about Novo Nordisk's ability to capture market share from Eli Lilly, which already has a successful product in tirzepatide. As a result, investor expectations regarding Novo Nordisk's future revenue potential have been undermined. Following the announcement, Eli Lilly's shares saw an increase of approximately 4% in pre-market trading in the United States, reflecting a positive market reaction to the news.

Conclusion

The outcome of the REDEFINE 4 trial has significant implications for Novo Nordisk's competitive positioning in the obesity treatment market. With Eli Lilly's tirzepatide demonstrating superior efficacy, Novo Nordisk faces an uphill battle in promoting CagriSema as a viable alternative. Investors will need to closely monitor further developments and trial results to assess the future trajectory of both companies in this sector.