Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Ceasefire Holds

Key Points

• The US-Iran ceasefire has been stable for over seven weeks, improving tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Gold has defended the $4,561 support level, showing bullish rejection candles.
• Silver has surged to $77.78, breaking above key moving averages and trendlines.
• China's People’s Bank of China has maintained gold purchases for over 17 months, providing long-term support.

Market Overview

As of May 25, 2026, gold and silver prices are consolidating amid ongoing geopolitical stability and inflation data. Recent U.S. inflation figures exceeded expectations, which may impact future Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The firm real yields and a strong dollar have limited gold's ability to rally significantly.

Central bank demand, particularly from China, remains a crucial driver for gold, while geopolitical factors have slightly reduced demand for precious metals due to the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

Gold Price Analysis

Gold has successfully defended the $4,561 support level, reclaiming the lower boundary of a blue descending channel. A bullish rejection candle formed at this level, indicating strong buying interest. The price remains below the 50-period moving average at $4,566, with resistance levels identified at $4,590 and $4,629.

Technical indicators show a positive divergence in the RSI, suggesting potential upward momentum. Traders are advised to consider long positions with a target of $4,590 and a stop loss at $4,538.

Silver Price Analysis

Silver has rallied to $77.78, breaking above the 50-period moving average and a descending trendline. The price action indicates a bullish trend, supported by strong continuation candles. The RSI has moved above 55, indicating bullish momentum.

Support is identified at $76.00, with resistance levels at $78.81 to $79.00. Traders are encouraged to take long positions with a target of $78.81 and a stop loss at $76.80.