Summary of US Non-Farm Payrolls Report - March 2026

Date: March 6, 2026

Key Economic Indicators

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for February: -92,000 (Expected: 60,000; Previous: 130,000)
• Private Payrolls: -86,000 (Expected: 60,000; Previous: 172,000)
• Government Payrolls: -6,000 (Expected: -42,000; Previous: -42,000)
• Manufacturing Payrolls: -12,000 (Expected: -2,000; Previous: -5,000)
• Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (Expected: 4.3%; Previous: 4.3%)
• Average Hourly Earnings: 3.8% YoY (Expected: 3.7%; Previous: 3.7%)
• Retail Sales: -0.2% MoM (Expected: -0.3%; Previous: 0.0%)
• Core Retail Sales: 0% MoM (Expected: 0.1%; Previous: 0.0%)

Market Reaction

The US100 index experienced a decline of 1.33% following the release of the weaker-than-expected jobs report. This report raises concerns about stagflation risks in the US economy, which is the largest in the world. The final market reaction is anticipated to be clearer after the US stock market opens.

Context and Implications

The significant drop in non-farm payrolls indicates potential economic challenges ahead, as the labor market shows signs of weakness. The increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% further emphasizes these concerns. Additionally, the mixed results in retail sales suggest that consumer spending may be slowing, which could impact overall economic growth.

Conclusion

The February NFP report presents a concerning picture of the US labor market, with substantial job losses and rising unemployment. Investors and analysts will be closely monitoring these developments as they could influence monetary policy and market sentiment in the coming months.