USDCAD Technical Analysis Summary

The USDCAD currency pair is currently experiencing a significant technical battle, trading within a defined range as buyers and sellers alternate control. The overall market bias has shifted towards a bullish sentiment; however, the bulls face a critical resistance level that must be surpassed to maintain a long-term upward trend.

Key Technical Levels

The most crucial level to monitor on the daily chart is the 1.37045 mark, which represents the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range. Recent price action has shown multiple attempts to break above this level, but momentum has consistently faltered, indicating a struggle for control between buyers and sellers.

Current Market Sentiment

For the market to confirm a return of buyer dominance, a sustained close above 1.37045 is necessary. Until this occurs, the market remains in a state of "hesitant bullishness," suggesting that traders should remain cautious.

Short-Term Support Levels

On the intraday charts, the 100-hour moving average at 1.36899 serves as a pivotal support level. As long as the price remains above this moving average, the technical advantage leans towards buyers. Below this, the 200-hour moving average at 1.3667 and the 38.2% retracement level of the 2026 trading range at 1.36517 are critical support levels to watch.

Fundamental Influences

The technical landscape is being heavily influenced by fundamental factors, particularly the recent increase in the blanket tariff rate to 15% by the U.S. administration. This has created a "risk-off" environment, driving investors towards the USD. Additionally, tensions between the U.S. and Canada, particularly regarding trade, are contributing to the volatility in the USDCAD pair.

Trading Outlook

The path forward for traders is clear:

• Monitor the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. If the price holds above these levels, a potential rally towards the weekly highs (between 1.3714 to 1.3724) may occur.
• On the downside, a break below the 200-hour MA at 1.3667 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.36517 could signal increased bearish momentum.

As buyers and sellers continue to battle within a narrow range, traders should remain vigilant for a breakout in either direction, which could dictate the next significant move for the USDCAD pair.