Overview
Gold prices are experiencing an upward trend as traders react to recent escalations in trade tensions and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. As of 10:34 GMT, XAU/USD is trading at $3345.22, reflecting a gain of $21.21 or +0.64%.
Impact of New Tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced new tariffs ranging from 35% to 50% on imports from Canada and Brazil, alongside additional tariffs on other trading partners. This has heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with traders concerned about potential supply chain disruptions and retaliatory actions from affected countries. The Canadian dollar and Brazilian real have both seen declines, further boosting the appeal of gold.
Federal Reserve's Dovish Signals
The Federal Reserve has indicated the possibility of rate cuts in upcoming meetings, which typically supports non-yielding assets like gold. Despite stable labor market data, the Fed's dovish outlook has provided a solid foundation for gold prices, keeping XAU/USD above the critical pivot level of $3310.48.
Market Dynamics
U.S. Treasury yields have remained steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.346% and the 2-year at 3.87%. This stability reflects cautious optimism regarding the U.S. economy, while traders continue to hedge against geopolitical risks by investing in gold. The U.S. Dollar Index has risen by 0.2% to 97.79, contributing some headwinds to gold prices but failing to diminish its safe-haven appeal.
Price Forecast
Gold is currently defending the pivot at $3310.48, with immediate resistance levels at $3347.97 and $3365.92. A breakout above these levels could lead to further gains towards $3451.53 and the record high of $3500.20. Conversely, a sustained drop below $3310.48 may indicate weakness, with potential declines towards $3244.41-$3228.38.
Conclusion
The ongoing trade tensions and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts are likely to keep gold prices on a bullish trajectory. Traders are closely monitoring the market for a breakout above $3365.92 to confirm upward momentum in this safe-haven environment.