The Week Ahead: Nvidia, PCE and Jackson Hole Test the Stock Market Rally

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: August 23, 2026

Market Overview

U.S. equities experienced a downturn last week, primarily due to rising long-term Treasury yields that pressured technology stocks, pulling major indices away from their record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,277.01, marking a 0.85% decline for the week. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.05% to 26,180.45, while the S&P 500 decreased by 1.43% to 7,674.37.

Key Drivers

The bond market emerged as a significant influence, particularly after the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007. Although a decision by the Treasury to increase long-dated bond buybacks led to a temporary decline in yields, this relief was short-lived as yields rebounded. Market participants are particularly focused on issues such as deficits, new debt supply, inflation risks, and the financial demands associated with the AI sector's growth.

Sector Performance

Losses were notably concentrated in rate-sensitive growth stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping approximately 5% for the week. This decline reflects traders reducing their exposure to sectors that are heavily reliant on lower borrowing costs and ongoing data-center investments. The Dow Jones fared slightly better, but the long bond remains a concern for all major indices.

Upcoming Economic Releases and Earnings

The week ahead is set to be pivotal, with several key economic indicators and earnings reports scheduled:

• Core PCE, Preliminary GDP, Durable Goods Orders: These economic tests will be crucial in shaping market sentiment.
• Earnings Reports: Major companies such as Nvidia, Marvell Technology, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike will report earnings, with a focus on AI demand and enterprise spending.

Technical Outlook

Despite the recent pressures, all major indices remain above their rising 52-week simple moving averages (SMAs), indicating a sustained long-term uptrend. However, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are currently under pressure from increasing long-term yields.

Market Outlook

The upcoming week will be critical for determining the market's direction. Positive inflation data that aligns with a steady Federal Reserve outlook, combined with favorable guidance from Nvidia and Marvell, could help restore confidence in technology stocks. Conversely, any signs of hot inflation, rising crude oil prices, or cautious guidance regarding AI spending could challenge key support levels.

Conclusion

As traders prepare for a week filled with significant economic data and earnings reports, the focus will be on how these factors will influence market sentiment and the performance of technology stocks amidst rising yields.