Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver Price Forecast: War Risks vs. High Rates
By: Arslan Ali | Published: Mar 17, 2026
Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) has experienced volatility but maintains a critical psychological support level at $5,000. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to increased energy prices, reinforcing gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation.
Geopolitical Chaos vs. Safe-Haven Demand
The current situation in the Middle East has resulted in heightened safe-haven demand for gold. As energy prices soar due to conflict, investors are turning to gold as a secure asset, further driving inflation and increasing gold's attractiveness.
The Federal Reserve’s “Higher for Longer” Threat
Conversely, the US dollar is gaining strength ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. The expectation of prolonged high interest rates due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices is limiting gold's potential upside, as higher rates make holding non-yielding assets like gold more expensive.
Gold Prices Forecast
Currently, gold is trading around $5,020, with a critical support level at $4,984. The market is in a state of indecision, hovering between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A break above $5,062 could signal a bullish trend towards $5,127 and $5,239, while failure to hold $4,984 may lead to a decline towards $4,910.
Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast
Silver is trading around $80.95, with a support level at $78.40. The metal is currently facing resistance at $82.50, which was previously a support zone. The RSI indicates a neutral market sentiment, suggesting a lack of clear direction. A break above $82.50 could lead to a rise towards $86.70, while a failure to maintain $78.40 may result in a drop to $75.30.