USDJPY Technical Analysis: Buyers Gaining Control

In a recent analysis of the USDJPY currency pair, it has been observed that buyers are attempting to take control in the short term. The key level to watch is 153.73, which represents the upper boundary of a four-day trading range. For buyers to establish a stronger position, they need to break and maintain prices above this level.

Current Market Dynamics

The USDJPY has been trading within a defined range over the past four days, indicating a period of consolidation rather than a clear trend. The recent low was established last Thursday, and since then, the pair has shown a pattern of progressively higher lows, suggesting that buyers are starting to push against the downside.

Recent Price Movements

During today's trading session, the price briefly dipped below a rising trend line on the hourly chart, which had been supporting the short-term recovery. However, this breakdown did not lead to sustained selling pressure, and buyers quickly re-entered the market, leading to a recovery. The price then reclaimed the 100-hour moving average at 153.127, which accelerated upside momentum.

Resistance Levels

The USDJPY is currently testing the upper boundary of the four-day range at 153.734, a level that has previously capped gains. Notably, there were two hourly highs rejected near this level last Thursday, and Friday's rally also stalled just below it at 153.66. A decisive break above 153.734 would shift the short-term bias in favor of buyers and could lead to a move towards the 38.2% retracement level of the broader February trading range at 154.32.

Key Technical Indicators

Additional resistance levels to watch include the falling 200-hour moving average at 154.506 and the 100-day moving average at 154.628. The 100-day moving average is particularly significant, as the USDJPY fell below this level for the first time since January 30, indicating a shift in the broader market tone to neutral or slightly bearish.

Conclusion and Bias

In summary, while the USDJPY remains near its February lows, buyers are attempting to build short-term momentum. A sustained break above 153.734 would confirm this effort and increase the likelihood of a broader corrective recovery. Conversely, a break back below the 100-hour moving average at 153.127 would shift the bias back to neutral-to-bearish.

Summary / Bias

• Short-term bias: Modestly bullish
• Risk: A break below 153.127 would tilt the bias back to neutral-to-bearish.
• Upside targets:
  • 154.32 (38.2% retracement of the February range)
  • 154.506 (200-hour moving average)
  • 154.628 (100-day moving average)