Market Analysis Summary - February 10, 2026

US100 Index Performance

The Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) have shown a slight increase of 0.15%, approaching the 26,000 mark. This upward movement comes despite a sell-off in major tech companies like Microsoft and Palantir. The current earnings season for Q4 2025 is progressing, with positive signals emerging from the market.

Earnings Season Insights

As of now, 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported their earnings:

• 76% of companies exceeded EPS expectations.
• 73% surpassed revenue expectations.
• Reported earnings are, on average, 7.6% above estimates, consistent with historical averages.
• Average revenue is 1.4% above estimates, aligning with the 10-year average.

The blended earnings growth rate stands at 13.0% year-over-year (y/y), marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Revenue growth is at 8.8% y/y, the strongest since Q3 2022.

Market Revisions and Guidance

Market expectations for Q4 earnings growth have shifted from 8.3% to 13.0% due to positive EPS surprises. In terms of guidance for Q1 2026, 23 companies issued negative EPS guidance while 28 provided positive guidance.

The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is currently at 21.5, which is above both the 5-year and 10-year averages, indicating that the market is not considered "cheap."

Sector Performance Analysis

Companies with significant international sales are outperforming those reliant on the US market:

• Companies with >50% US sales: earnings +10.0% y/y, revenues +7.7% y/y.
• Companies with >50% international sales: earnings +17.7% y/y, revenues +11.9% y/y.

NVIDIA has been a major contributor to this outperformance, and excluding it from the analysis shows a decrease in growth rates, indicating the importance of foreign exchange and global exposure.

Recent Growth Drivers

The recent increase in earnings growth rates has been primarily driven by positive EPS surprises in sectors such as Communication Services, Health Care, and Financials. The sectors reporting y/y earnings growth include:

• Information Technology
• Industrials
• Communication Services

Conversely, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care sectors are experiencing y/y earnings declines.

Technical Analysis of US100

The US100 index is currently trading above the 200-period EMA and is approximately 1,000 points below its all-time high of around 26,400.