AUD/USD Forecast: April 2026 Analysis

Author: Cedric Thompson

Published: April 24, 2026

Key Highlights

• Australia's composite PMI has rebounded to 51, indicating a return to expansion.
• Despite the positive PMI, the manufacturing sector is still facing challenges, particularly from rising fuel costs.
• The US-Iran ceasefire extension has not alleviated energy market concerns, with Brent crude prices exceeding $100 per barrel.
• The AUD/USD pair is currently above the 0.7133 support level, maintaining a bullish outlook.

Market Context

The market is experiencing volatility as the DXY (US Dollar Index) approaches 98.78, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions. The ceasefire between the US and Iran has not stabilized the energy market, leading to a resurgence in oil prices, which poses a significant risk to global economic growth.

Australia's Economic Indicators

The preliminary composite PMI for Australia has shown a positive bounce back to 51, suggesting a return to growth after a disappointing March. However, a deeper analysis reveals that the manufacturing sector is still struggling with declining new orders and inventory issues, primarily due to increased shipping and fuel costs. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a challenging situation with the cash rate at 4.10%, as rising energy prices contribute to inflationary pressures.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD

The technical outlook for the AUD/USD pair remains bullish as it holds above the critical support level of 0.7133. Recent price action shows some consolidation after reaching a peak of 0.7221. The Supertrend indicator at 0.71337 is acting as a strong support level for bulls. Although momentum indicators like the RSI are below 50, they indicate a reset rather than a complete downturn. As long as the price remains above 0.7133, the bullish trend is expected to continue.

Forecast and Expectations

The current trend direction for AUD/USD is bullish, with a positive bias. Key support levels are identified at 0.6833 and 0.69655, while resistance levels are at 0.71875, 0.72, and 0.73. The medium-term outlook suggests that the pair will continue to trade within a range of 0.7060 to 0.7210. A break above 0.71875 could lead to a retest of the recent highs at 0.7221. Conversely, if the support at 0.7133 fails, a deeper decline towards the 500-SMA may occur.

Conclusion

As the market shifts focus from ceasefire hopes to the realities of an energy crisis, the AUD/USD pair's performance will be closely tied to developments in the US job market and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Traders should remain vigilant and monitor key economic indicators that could influence the dollar's strength and overall market sentiment.