Market Analysis Summary
Trump Says Ceasefire Is Over After Latest Attacks; Geopolitical Risk Rises
Author: Martin Lam
Date: July 9, 2026
Key Takeaways
- U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the temporary agreement with Iran is "over," which has raised concerns about renewed hostilities in the Middle East. This situation could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and increase geopolitical risk premiums.
- The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed heightened concerns over inflation, with officials worried about broadening price pressures that may necessitate rate hikes, although they opted for a more concise policy statement.
- Market focus is on the European Central Bank's (ECB) June meeting minutes, which may provide insights on inflation and growth, potentially shifting rate expectations. Additionally, U.S. initial jobless claims are anticipated to be around 218,000, slightly up from the previous 215,000.
Global Market Review
U.S. equities closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow down 1.09%, S&P 500 down 0.28%, and Nasdaq up 0.2%. Treasury yields rose to multi-week highs, and the dollar reached a one-week high before easing. Gold prices fell by 0.7% to $4,076.32/oz, influenced by inflation fears following Trump's remarks, while U.S. crude oil futures surged over 3%, hitting their highest level since June 22.
Key Events Today
- 09:30 - China CPI & PPI for June
- 19:30 - ECB Minutes
- 20:30 - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
- 22:00 - U.S. Existing Home Sales for June
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1456 / 1.1473 | Support: 1.1399 / 1.1382
The EUR/USD dipped below 1.1400 but recovered slightly, closing higher as the Fed minutes did not provide strong hawkish support for the dollar. Analysts suggest a move above the 20-day MA could boost upside potential.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3461 / 1.3498 | Support: 1.3339 / 1.3302
The GBP/USD accelerated higher, breaking above 1.3400, supported by renewed dollar-selling pressure despite Middle East tensions. Analysts see potential for further gains if the pair sustains above this level.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 162.84 / 163.11 | Support: 162.22 / 161.94
The USD/JPY eased slightly, pausing its four-day rally while remaining near multi-decade highs. Analysts expect consolidation at elevated levels, with bulls probing toward 163.
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 76.52 / 78.17 | Support: 72.61 / 71.30
Oil prices extended gains after Trump's declaration regarding the Iran agreement, raising supply disruption risks. Analysts are watching the 20-day MA as a potential barrier for further price movements.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4142 / 4173 | Support: 4012 / 3982
Gold prices continued to decline, hitting one-week lows due to inflation and rate concerns. Analysts note that a test of support could expose the $4,000 level as a key downside trigger.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 63,498 / 64,406 | Support: 60,728 / 59,585
Bitcoin traded below $62,300, down 1.7%, pressured by uncertainty over Fed policy signals. Analysts indicate that a break below $61,800–62,000 could open further downside toward $60,000.
Conclusion
The geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran relations, is influencing market sentiment and asset prices. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic data and central bank communications closely.