S&P 500 Forecast: US Blockade Jitters and Goldman Miss Stifle the 7,000 Rebound for SPX

Author: Cedric Thompson

Published: April 13, 2026

Key Points

• The S&P 500 remains resilient despite rising Brent crude prices above $100 due to geopolitical tensions.
• Goldman Sachs reported earnings that exceeded expectations, but a decline in fixed-income revenue negatively impacted the financial sector.
• The index needs to break above 6,825 to regain momentum towards the 7,000 mark.

Market Overview

Recent developments have left Wall Street on edge, particularly following the collapse of peace talks and the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iranian ports. This geopolitical tension has led to a significant surge in crude oil prices, which increased by over 7% in a single day. The $100 level for Brent crude is critical, as it could compel central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance on monetary policy.

Goldman Sachs Earnings Report

Goldman Sachs reported a profit that surpassed estimates; however, the underlying revenue mix was less favorable, leading to a negative market reaction. This has contributed to a prevailing "sell the news" sentiment among investors. Inflation remains a persistent concern, exacerbated by gas prices reaching three-year highs, which complicates the Federal Reserve's position.

Technical Analysis

Weekly and Daily Trends

The S&P 500 has experienced a pullback towards 6,280 after a strong rally towards 7,015. However, a rebound at the end of March has continued into April, indicating a potential positive shift in momentum. The daily 21-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is currently acting as a support level, suggesting that bulls are still in the game.

Market Breadth Indicators

The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) recently crossed above 50, which historically indicates a bullish signal with a median return of nearly 20% over the next year. This crossover is a significant indicator of improving market breadth.

Renko Chart Analysis

The 20-brick Renko chart shows a bullish trend, with a recent "Buy" signal indicating a breakout above the 500 SMA (Simple Moving Average). The current RSI (Relative Strength Index) suggests that there is still room for growth before the market becomes overextended.

Trade Parameters

Current Trend Direction: Neutral

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 6,310, 6,500

Key Resistance Levels: 7,015, 7,100

Medium Term Path: The expectation is for a gradual increase towards the 7,014 all-time high, despite the challenges posed by rising oil prices. The market appears to be focusing on strong corporate earnings and the traditionally bullish April period.

Conclusion

Despite geopolitical tensions and mixed earnings reports, the S&P 500 shows signs of resilience. Investors are advised to monitor key support and resistance levels closely while considering the potential for a bullish trend in the coming weeks.