Market Analysis Summary

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: Lower Yields Lift Futures Ahead of PCE and Nvidia

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: August 25, 2026

Key Points

• Lower Treasury yields have positively impacted stock futures, although the long bond remains above 5% as the market prepares for significant tests on Wednesday.
• Upcoming earnings from Nvidia and the PCE inflation report are set to influence market sentiment, particularly regarding AI demand and interest rate expectations.
• Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole will follow these events, potentially shaping the week’s rate outlook.

Market Overview

U.S. stock futures showed an upward trend on Tuesday morning, with Nasdaq-100 futures leading the way with a 1% increase. This rebound follows a decline on Monday driven by semiconductor stocks, where the S&P 500 fell by 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.76%, while the Dow Jones gained 0.26% due to financial sector strength.

Technical Analysis

S&P 500 Futures

The September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are currently trading around the former all-time high of 7693.75, consolidating within a range of 7657.75 to 7746.50. The main trend remains upward, but minor trends indicate some downside momentum. A sustained move above 7748.25 could shift momentum back to the upside.

Nasdaq-100 Futures

September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are trading below the 50-day moving average, which is currently acting as resistance. Key support levels are identified at 29150.75 and 28946.75, with a potential value zone between 28772.25 and 28401.50.

Dow Jones Futures

September E-mini Dow futures are experiencing a rally, supported by a successful test of the 50-day moving average. The main trend is upward, but minor trends are down, indicating a cautious approach as traders react to the minor pivot at 53848.

Bond Market Insights

The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to 4.67%, while the 30-year yield is at 5.20%. Expectations of Treasury buybacks are influencing these movements, with the Treasury planning to double its purchases of older long-dated debt. However, the overall supply of new bonds continues to grow, which may keep long-term rates elevated.

Upcoming Events

On Wednesday, the market will react to the PCE inflation report and Nvidia's earnings announcement. Nvidia's performance is critical, as the semiconductor sector has faced selling pressure recently. The company needs to demonstrate strong demand and positive forward guidance to regain investor confidence.

Global Market Context

International markets are showing mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi gaining, while China's CSI 300 has seen a slight decline. The overall tone in overseas markets is supporting U.S. futures as they react to lower yields.

Conclusion

The upcoming days are crucial for market direction, with key economic indicators and corporate earnings set to influence investor sentiment. The S&P 500 is testing its all-time high, while the Nasdaq-100 faces resistance below its 50-day moving average. The outcomes of the PCE report and Nvidia's earnings will be pivotal in determining the near-term market trajectory.